136 Hemlock Dr

Bracey, VA 23919

$250,000C

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Built 2006 · SingleFamily · Pending · 46 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,989/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax + insurance: −$227
• HOA: −$58
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$418
• Net cashflow: $-24/mo
• Annual: $-292/yr
• Cap rate: 6.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.72%
• DSCR: 1.03
• 1% rule: 0.80%
• Cash to close: $70,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-24 ($-292/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $246k (1.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $199k (20.4% below list).
• It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $199k (20.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (1.4% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#421 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Mecklenburg County Public School District (rural): math 57% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #49 of 131 in VA (top 37%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: 110 active listings in the ZIP; 153 units permitted in Mecklenburg County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Mecklenburg County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $20k; list at $250k implies a 1182% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (1.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $70k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wind risk, 36% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 2.5% in Bracey — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.