136 Hemlock Dr · Bracey, VA 23919

$250,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 46 Days on market

Built 2006 0.55 ac lot $172/sqft · 18% below area Est $304k · 18% under $58/mo HOA · 3% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.2/30.0
• Appreciation +5.7/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Affordable home in the desirable neighborhood of Tanglewood Shores. This off-frame modular features three bedrooms and two full baths with a split floor plan. Home is situated on a large lot which backs up to the golf course. Spacious screen porch offers a great place for chill'n. Subdivision offers a very nice golf course with clubhouse, community swimming pool, tennis courts, common area in the lake featuring boat ramp for water access to the lake, swimming area, playground and picnic area for the resident's use.

Key facts

• Picnic area
• Tennis courts
• Screen porch

Tags

• SCREEN PORCH
• COMMUNITY SWIMMING POOL
• TENNIS COURTS
• BOAT RAMP
• PLAYGROUND
• PICNIC AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-24 ($-292/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $246k (1.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $199k (20.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $199k (20.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 2.5% in Bracey — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#421 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Mecklenburg County Public School District (rural): math 57% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #49 of 131 in VA (top 37%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 110 active listings in the ZIP; 153 units permitted in Mecklenburg County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (1.4% local appreciation)).
• Mecklenburg County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (1.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $70k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $20k; list at $250k implies a 1182% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wind risk, 36% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $198,934 (20.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.72%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $303,847
• List price: $250,000
• Delta: -17.72%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10137 Highway 903	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,550 (+6%)	0mo	$349,000	$225	85
285 Dogwood Dr	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,400 (-4%)	8mo	$315,000	$225	77
337 Dogwood Dr	0.18mi	3/2.5	1,647 (+13%)	1mo	$375,000	$228	67
154 Herman Rd	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,456 (0%)	11mo	$630,000	$433	62
285 Alexander Dr	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,358 (-7%)	14mo	$299,900	$221	62
285 Alexander Dr	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,358 (-7%)	14mo	$299,900	$221	61
308 Hemlock Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,608 (+10%)	21mo	$630,000	$392	56
11 Longwood Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,361 (-6%)	15mo	$299,000	$220	54
492 Tanglewood Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-8%)	18mo	$255,000	$190	52
190 Blackridge Rd	0.63mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,320 (-9%)	2mo	$245,000	$186	48
610 Beechwood Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,600 (+10%)	11mo	$125,000	$78	45
25 Cedar Ct	0.72mi	2/3.0 (-1)	1,344 (-8%)	12mo	$630,000	$469	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.42% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.12×
• Total profit: $8,262
• Equity at exit: $90,862

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.83×
• Total profit: $58,439
• Equity at exit: $125,133

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23919

• Home prices YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 110
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,989 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$56 /mo · $675/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$58
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$418
• Net cashflow: $-24

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,020

Max offer price $245,708

Occupancy floor 96%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $58 · $696/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-06
   status Pending 520-char remark

   Show marketing remark (520 chars)

   Affordable home in the desirable neighborhood of Tanglewood Shores. This off-frame modular features three bedrooms and two full baths with a split floor plan. Home is situated on a large lot which backs up to the golf course. Spacious screen porch offers a great place for chill'n. Subdivision offers a very nice golf course with clubhouse, community swimming pool, tennis courts, common area in the lake featuring boat ramp for water access to the lake, swimming area, playground and picnic area for the resident's use.

2. 2026-05-03
   price $250,000 520-char remark

   Show marketing remark (520 chars)

   Affordable home in the desirable neighborhood of Tanglewood Shores. This off-frame modular features three bedrooms and two full baths with a split floor plan. Home is situated on a large lot which backs up to the golf course. Spacious screen porch offers a great place for chill'n. Subdivision offers a very nice golf course with clubhouse, community swimming pool, tennis courts, common area in the lake featuring boat ramp for water access to the lake, swimming area, playground and picnic area for the resident's use.

3. 2026-03-20
   listed $285,000 Active 520-char remark

   Show marketing remark (520 chars)

   Affordable home in the desirable neighborhood of Tanglewood Shores. This off-frame modular features three bedrooms and two full baths with a split floor plan. Home is situated on a large lot which backs up to the golf course. Spacious screen porch offers a great place for chill'n. Subdivision offers a very nice golf course with clubhouse, community swimming pool, tennis courts, common area in the lake featuring boat ramp for water access to the lake, swimming area, playground and picnic area for the resident's use.

4. 2005-09-12
   soldstatus $19,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $675 · $56/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,050 · $171/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,375/yr (+$115/mo · 203.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 36% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,872
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$675
• − Insurance: −$2,048
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,910
• − Management: −$1,910
• − HOA: −$696
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable loss: −$4,642
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,114
• After-tax cash flow: $823/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mecklenburg County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102460
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -29.00%
• Reading proficiency: 72% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $37,491
• Composite: 53.55/100
• National rank: #1446
• State rank: #49 of 131 in VA

Livability — Bracey

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #421
• US rank: #18014

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 2,096
• Population (ZIP): 2,096

Population outlook (Mecklenburg County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,332 people
• By 2030: 26,742 · -5.6%
• By 2040: 23,502 · -17.0%
• By 2050: 20,851 · -26.4%
• By 2075: 17,525 · -38.1%
• By 2100: 14,524 · -48.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Black 10% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Russian 5% Slovak 3% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Other Indo-European 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Mecklenburg

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.8) · D 39.4% · R 60.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.2pp toward R · 2008: -4.6pp · 2024: -20.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.8 2020: R+15.2 2016: R+11.3 2012: R+7.2 2008: R+4.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.42%
• Current HPI: 204.6074
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+1182.1% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Pending — RVLG
• 2026-05-03 Price Changed $250,000 RVLG
• 2026-03-20 Listed $285,000 RVLG
• 2005-09-12 Sold (Public Records) $19,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $675 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.