938 Clay St

Henderson, KY 42420

$80,000C+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 728 sqft · Built 1952 · SingleFamily · Active · 263 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $949/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$420
• Tax + insurance: −$99
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$199
• Net cashflow: $231/mo
• Annual: $2,775/yr
• Cap rate: 9.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.39%
• DSCR: 1.55
• 1% rule: 1.19%
• Cash to close: $22,400

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $80k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $231 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($949 rent vs $80k).
• It's been on market 263 days — a 12% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $70k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $553 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#114 in KY, #4,949 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Henderson County (suburban): math 40% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #29 of 165 in KY (top 18%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: South Heights Elementary School (math 12% / reading 22%, grade F, #607 of 676 statewide, top 91%, 420 students, 74% FRL); Henderson County North Middle School (math 37% / reading 43%, grade F, #59 of 217 statewide, top 29%, 720 students, 54% FRL); Henderson County High School (math 33% / reading 33%, grade F, #94 of 254 statewide, top 37%, 1,958 students, 44% FRL) — zoned schools at 57% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 231 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 92 units permitted in Henderson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Henderson County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 263 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.