938 Clay St · Henderson, KY 42420

$80,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 728 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 263 Days on market

Built 1952 5,000 sqft lot ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.3/30.0
• DSCR +9.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

House features hardwood floors, floor furnace and window AC unit. There is a one car detached garage and off street parking. 2 BDR/1 bath. House would is currently used as a rental and brings in $850/month, but it currently has a month to month tenant, making it possible for a future owner to take possession. Come check it out!

Key facts

• Off street parking
• Hardwood floors
• Detached garage

Tags

• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• DETACHED GARAGE
• OFF STREET PARKING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $231 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($949 rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $70k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#114 in KY, #4,949 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Henderson County (suburban): math 40% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #29 of 165 in KY (top 18%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: South Heights Elementary School (math 12% / reading 22%, grade F, #607 of 676 statewide, top 91%, 420 students, 74% FRL); Henderson County North Middle School (math 37% / reading 43%, grade F, #59 of 217 statewide, top 29%, 720 students, 54% FRL); Henderson County High School (math 33% / reading 33%, grade F, #94 of 254 statewide, top 37%, 1,958 students, 44% FRL) — zoned schools at 57% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 231 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 92 units permitted in Henderson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $553 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Henderson County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 263 days — a 12% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $70,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 263 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.39%
• DSCR: 1.55
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.08×
• Total profit: $1,757
• Equity at exit: $11,928

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.91×
• Total profit: $20,466
• Equity at exit: $6,917

Cash invested: $22,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 42420

• Home prices YoY: -31.6%
• Active inventory: 231
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $949 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$420
• Tax from tax record: −$66 /mo · $787/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$199
• Net cashflow: $231

Break-even live

Break-even rent $656

Max offer price $80,000

Occupancy floor 71%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $277	-5% $254	+0% $231	+5% $209	+10% $186
Rent	-10% $156	-5% $194	+0% $231	+5% $269	+10% $306
Rate	-1.0pp $272	-0.5pp $252	base $231	+0.5pp $211	+1.0pp $189

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,000
• Closing costs: $2,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
500 Fair St Henderson, KY	1.0–3.0	1.0	740	$949	$1.28	15d	9	1.08mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $80,000 Active 263 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $80,000 Active 260 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $80,000 Active 259 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $80,000 Active 258 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $80,000 Active 257 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $80,000 Active 255 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $80,000 Active 254 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $80,000 Active 252 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $80,000 Active 251 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $80,000 Active 250 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $80,000 Active 249 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $80,000 Active 246 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $80,000 Active 244 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $80,000 Active 243 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $80,000 Active 242 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $80,000 Active 241 DOM
17. 2026-03-27
    price $80,000 329-char remark

    Show marketing remark (329 chars)

    House features hardwood floors, floor furnace and window AC unit. There is a one car detached garage and off street parking. 2 BDR/1 bath. House would is currently used as a rental and brings in $850/month, but it currently has a month to month tenant, making it possible for a future owner to take possession. Come check it out!

18. 2025-10-24
    price $85,000 329-char remark

    Show marketing remark (329 chars)

    House features hardwood floors, floor furnace and window AC unit. There is a one car detached garage and off street parking. 2 BDR/1 bath. House would is currently used as a rental and brings in $850/month, but it currently has a month to month tenant, making it possible for a future owner to take possession. Come check it out!

19. 2025-10-01
    listed $90,000 Active 329-char remark

    Show marketing remark (329 chars)

    House features hardwood floors, floor furnace and window AC unit. There is a one car detached garage and off street parking. 2 BDR/1 bath. House would is currently used as a rental and brings in $850/month, but it currently has a month to month tenant, making it possible for a future owner to take possession. Come check it out!

20. 2024-07-31
    status Pending
21. 2024-07-03
    price $85,000
22. 2024-06-14
    listed $89,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $787 · $66/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $787 · $66/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,388
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,481
• − Property taxes: −$787
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$911
• − Management: −$911
• − Depreciation: −$2,327
• Taxable income: $1,570
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$377
• After-tax cash flow: $2,398/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Henderson County
• NCES district ID: 2102710
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $41,772
• Composite: 34.13/100
• National rank: #5285
• State rank: #29 of 165 in KY

Livability — Henderson

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #114
• US rank: #4949

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Henderson, KY
• Population (ZIP): 38,434

Population outlook (Henderson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,910 people
• By 2030: 46,841 · -0.1%
• By 2040: 46,018 · -1.9%
• By 2050: 44,390 · -5.4%
• By 2075: 40,442 · -13.8%
• By 2100: 33,538 · -28.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Black 8% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Romanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Henderson

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.2) · D 34.7% · R 64.0% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -31.9pp toward R · 2008: 2.6pp · 2024: -29.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.2 2020: R+24.6 2016: R+27.7 2012: R+11.8 2008: D+2.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -95.69%
• Current HPI: 207.5676
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

-10.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $80,000 HABOR
• 2025-10-24 Price Changed $85,000 HABOR
• 2025-10-01 Listed $90,000 HABOR
• 2024-07-31 Pending — HABOR
• 2024-07-03 Price Changed $85,000 HABOR
• 2024-06-14 Listed $89,000 HABOR

Property tax history

+20.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $787 · +92.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.