14851 Jeffrey Rd #326

Irvine, CA 92618

$168,900A

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Built 1972 · Manufactured · Active · 118 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,579/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$886
• Tax + insurance: −$282
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$752
• Net cashflow: $1,661/mo
• Annual: $19,926/yr
• Cap rate: 18.09%
• Cash-on-cash: 42.13%
• DSCR: 2.87
• 1% rule: 2.12%
• Cash to close: $47,292

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $169k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($20k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $169k).
• It's been on market 118 days — a 9% lower offer ($154k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $154k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $1k appreciation (0.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#100 in CA, #3,537 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: health & safety C-, cost of living F.
• Irvine Unified (urban): math 74% / reading 80% proficiency, ranked #31 of 517 in CA (top 6%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Greentree Elementary (449 students, 30% FRL); Venado Middle (583 students, 20% FRL); Irvine High (math 70% / reading 74%, grade B+, #92 of 1,170 statewide, top 8%, 1,862 students, 21% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 465 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 6,974 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (3,839 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Orange County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (0.6% appreciation + 2.1% rent growth), your $47k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 18.1% vs local median 1.2% in Irvine — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 118 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Moderate: Kitchen cabinets — Worn condition
• Moderate: Kitchen countertops — Dated appearance
• Moderate: Carpet — Worn condition