14851 Jeffrey Rd #326 · Irvine, CA 92618

$168,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Manufactured · 213 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 1972 Fair condition $135/sqft · 35% below area Est $260k · 35% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +7.2/10.0
• Appreciation +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Manufactured-home adj. -6.9

Listing remarks MLS

This 1972 Boise Cascade home is looking for new Owners. Two good-sized bedrooms, two bathrooms, about 1,248 SF. Nice living and dining rooms has a built-in hutch with carpet and pergo-type flooring. Efficient kitchen comes with refrigerator, new dishwasher and many cabinets/drawers. Central Air Conditioning. Storage Shed for all your extras. Situated on a nicely landscaped, private lot with plenty of space to relax or garden.

Key facts

• Efficient kitchen
• Storage shed
• Built-in hutch

Tags

• BUILT-IN HUTCH
• EFFICIENT KITCHEN
• CENTRAL AIR CONDITIONING
• STORAGE SHED
• NICELY LANDSCAPED LOT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $169k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $169k).
• Recommended offer: $149k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.8% vs local median 1.3% in Irvine — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#100 in CA, #3,537 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: health & safety C-, cost of living F.
• Irvine Unified (urban): math 74% / reading 80% proficiency, ranked #31 of 517 in CA (top 6%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Greentree Elementary (449 students, 30% FRL); Venado Middle (583 students, 20% FRL); Irvine High (math 70% / reading 74%, grade B+, #92 of 1,170 statewide, top 8%, 1,862 students, 21% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 622 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 68d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 72% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 6,974 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (3,839 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $1k appreciation (0.6% local appreciation)).
• Orange County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (0.6% appreciation + 2.1% rent growth), your $47k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 213 days — a 12% lower offer ($149k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $148,632 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 213 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.67% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.81%
• DSCR: 2.19
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $260,370
• List price: $168,900
• Delta: -35.13%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 15 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14851 Jeffrey Rd #146	0.01mi	2/2.0	1,160 (-7%)	1mo	$310,000	$267	86
14851 Jeffrey Rd #16	0.01mi	2/2.0	1,248 (0%)	16mo	$188,500	$151	86
14851 Jeffrey Rd #350	0.01mi	2/2.0	1,300 (+4%)	17mo	$140,000	$108	78
14851 Jeffrey Rd #65	0.01mi	2/2.0	1,101 (-12%)	11mo	$260,000	$236	71
14851 Jeffrey Rd #298	0.01mi	2/2.0	1,396 (+12%)	15mo	$180,000	$129	67
14851 Jeffrey Rd #226	0.01mi	2/2.0	1,120 (-10%)	23mo	$279,000	$249	63

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.64% appreciation · 2.14% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.38×
• Total profit: $65,138
• Equity at exit: $54,539

10-year hold

• IRR: 30.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.42×
• Total profit: $161,955
• Equity at exit: $70,122

Cash invested: $47,292 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 7 active · 5 under contract
• Months of supply: 8.4 mo (12%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $229,999 ($170/sqft)
• Median days on market: 43 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: +22.4% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 92618

• Home prices YoY: 0.1%
• Rents YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 622
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,815 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$886
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$211 /mo · $2,534/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$591
• Net cashflow: $1,056

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,478

Max offer price $168,900

Occupancy floor 57%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,173	-5% $1,115	+0% $1,056	+5% $998	+10% $940
Rent	-10% $834	-5% $945	+0% $1,056	+5% $1,168	+10% $1,279
Rate	-1.0pp $1,142	-0.5pp $1,099	base $1,056	+0.5pp $1,013	+1.0pp $968

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,225
• Closing costs: $5,067
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5224 Walnut Ave Irvine, CA	3.0	2.5	1428	$4,000	$2.80	94d	1	0.24mi
34 Elksford Ave Irvine, CA	2.0	2.0	1078	$3,280	$3.04	139d	1	0.27mi
34 Elksford Ave Irvine, CA	2.0	2.0	1078	$3,350	$3.11	39d	1	0.27mi
5071 Doanoke Ave Irvine, CA	3.0	2.0	1379	$4,600	$3.34	11d	1	0.29mi
4 Austin Irvine, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	873	$3,020	$3.46	0d	9	0.30mi
5011 Greencap Ave Irvine, CA	3.0	2.0	1216	$4,400	$3.62	100d	1	0.31mi
5011 Greencap Ave Irvine, CA	3.0	2.0	1216	$4,500	$3.70	86d	1	0.31mi
152 Kazan St Irvine, CA	3.0	2.0	1091	$3,800	$3.48	39d	1	0.32mi
51 Golden Glen St #1 Irvine, CA	3.0	2.0	1048	$4,050	$3.86	78d	1	0.32mi
107 Oval Rd #4 Irvine, CA	2.0	2.0	862	$1,990	$2.31	0d	1	0.34mi
43 Golden Glen St Irvine, CA	3.0	2.0	1091	$3,500	$3.21	51d	1	0.34mi
31 Golden Glen St Irvine, CA	2.0	2.0	1048	$3,250	$3.10	107d	1	0.35mi
5151 Walnut Ave #29 Irvine, CA	2.0	3.0	1142	$3,400	$2.98	139d	1	0.43mi
11 Eccelstone Cir Irvine, CA	3.0	2.0	1480	$4,795	$3.24	120d	1	0.50mi
4801 Winvale Ave Irvine, CA	3.0	2.0	1299	$4,200	$3.23	44d	1	0.51mi
15431 Lorraine Way Irvine, CA	3.0	2.0	1450	$4,500	$3.10	120d	1	0.52mi
4 Albany Irvine, CA	2.0	1.5	1011	$2,995	$2.96	85d	1	0.53mi
4 Albany Irvine, CA	2.0	1.5	1020	$2,795	$2.74	7d	1	0.53mi
8 Albany Irvine, CA	2.0	1.5	1011	$2,800	$2.77	54d	1	0.53mi
5 Dover Irvine, CA	3.0	1.5	1121	$3,600	$3.21	68d	1	0.57mi
1300 Hayes St Irvine, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	956	$3,425	$3.58	3d	19	0.59mi
51 Ashbrook Irvine, CA	3.0	2.5	1399	$4,500	$3.22	63d	1	0.61mi
38 Cresthaven Irvine, CA	2.0	2.0	1105	$3,995	$3.62	4d	1	0.62mi
43 Alderwood #69 Irvine, CA	3.0	1.5	1220	$3,700	$3.03	116d	1	0.62mi
24 Elderglen Irvine, CA	2.0	1.5	1125	$3,200	$2.84	55d	1	0.63mi
26 Elderglen Irvine, CA	3.0	2.0	1104	$4,150	$3.76	116d	1	0.64mi
21 Ashbrook #102 Irvine, CA	3.0	2.5	1383	$4,300	$3.11	90d	1	0.66mi
21 Ashbrook #102 Irvine, CA	3.0	3.0	1383	$4,300	$3.11	65d	1	0.66mi
13 Ashbrook Irvine, CA	3.0	2.5	1399	$4,000	$2.86	80d	1	0.67mi
13 Eastmont #41 Irvine, CA	3.0	1.5	1121	$3,600	$3.21	6d	1	0.67mi
78 Rose Arch #21 Irvine, CA	2.0	2.0	1300	$3,950	$3.04	139d	1	0.72mi
18 Snapdragon #11 Irvine, CA	2.0	2.5	1068	$3,850	$3.60	41d	1	0.72mi
63 Wildwood Irvine, CA	2.0	1.0	928	$2,850	$3.07	139d	1	0.72mi
79 Wildwood Irvine, CA	3.0	2.0	1135	$3,995	$3.52	0d	1	0.73mi
86 Rose Arch Irvine, CA	2.0	2.5	1441	$4,100	$2.85	24d	1	0.74mi
4572 Charnock Dr Irvine, CA	3.0	2.0	1116	$2,200	$1.97	10d	1	0.74mi
19 Wildwood #6 Irvine, CA	2.0	1.0	928	$3,000	$3.23	99d	1	0.75mi
145 Huntington Irvine, CA	3.0	2.5	1224	$3,900	$3.19	139d	1	0.76mi
4552 Cheviot Dr Irvine, CA	3.0	2.0	1116	$4,300	$3.85	6d	1	0.77mi
317 Huntington Irvine, CA	2.0	2.0	1000	$3,100	$3.10	109d	1	0.77mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $168,900 Active 213 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $168,900 Active 212 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $168,900 Active 211 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $168,900 Active 210 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $168,900 Active 209 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $168,900 Active 208 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   days on market $168,900 Active 207 DOM
8. 2026-09-17
   days on market $168,900 Active 206 DOM
9. 2026-09-16
   days on market $168,900 Active 205 DOM
10. 2026-09-15
    days on market $168,900 Active 204 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $168,900 Active 203 DOM
12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $168,900 Active 202 DOM
13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $168,900 Active 201 DOM
14. 2026-09-11
    days on market $168,900 Active 200 DOM
15. 2026-09-05
    days on market $168,900 Active 194 DOM
16. 2026-09-04
    days on market $168,900 Active 193 DOM
17. 2026-09-02
    days on market $168,900 Active 191 DOM
18. 2026-08-31
    days on market $168,900 Active 189 DOM
19. 2026-08-29
    days on market $168,900 Active 187 DOM
20. 2026-08-28
    days on market $168,900 Active 186 DOM
21. 2026-08-27
    days on market $168,900 Active 185 DOM
22. 2026-08-26
    days on market $168,900 Active 184 DOM
23. 2026-08-25
    days on market $168,900 Active 183 DOM
24. 2026-08-24
    days on market $168,900 Active 182 DOM
25. 2026-08-23
    days on market $168,900 Active 181 DOM
26. 2026-08-22
    days on market $168,900 Active 180 DOM
27. 2026-08-21
    days on market $168,900 Active 179 DOM
28. 2026-08-20
    days on market $168,900 Active 178 DOM
29. 2026-08-19
    days on market $168,900 Active 177 DOM
30. 2026-08-18
    days on market $168,900 Active 176 DOM
31. 2026-08-17
    days on market $168,900 Active 175 DOM
32. 2026-08-16
    days on market $168,900 Active 174 DOM
33. 2026-08-15
    days on market $168,900 Active 173 DOM
34. 2026-08-14
    days on market $168,900 Active 172 DOM
35. 2026-08-13
    days on market $168,900 Active 171 DOM
36. 2026-08-12
    days on market $168,900 Active 170 DOM
37. 2026-08-11
    days on market $168,900 Active 169 DOM
38. 2026-08-10
    days on market $168,900 Active 168 DOM
39. 2026-08-09
    days on market $168,900 Active 167 DOM
40. 2026-08-08
    days on market $168,900 Active 166 DOM
41. 2026-08-06
    days on market $168,900 Active 164 DOM
42. 2026-08-05
    days on market $168,900 Active 163 DOM
43. 2026-08-04
    days on market $168,900 Active 162 DOM
44. 2026-08-03
    days on market $168,900 Active 161 DOM
45. 2026-07-31
    days on market $168,900 Active 158 DOM
46. 2026-07-30
    days on market $168,900 Active 157 DOM
47. 2026-07-30
    days on market $168,900 Active 156 DOM
48. 2026-07-28
    days on market $168,900 Active 155 DOM
49. 2026-07-26
    days on market $168,900 Active 153 DOM
50. 2026-07-24
    days on market $168,900 Active 151 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥91°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,777
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,461
• − Property taxes: −$2,534
• − Insurance: −$844
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,702
• − Management: −$2,702
• − Depreciation: −$4,913
• Taxable income: $10,621
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,549
• After-tax cash flow: $10,129/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab Est. rehab $31,200–$56,160 screening

This 1972 Boise Cascade home requires moderate renovations to improve its condition and appeal to buyers. Key areas for improvement include kitchen cabinets, countertops, and carpet, which can significantly enhance its resale value.

Repairs flagged

• Moderate Kitchen cabinets — Worn condition
• Moderate Kitchen countertops — Dated appearance
• Moderate Carpet — Worn condition

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal ↑
• Resale Replace kitchen countertops — Modern countertops improve functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Resale Replace carpet — Fresh carpet enhances comfort and appearance ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Moderate scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

B Composite school gradezoned avg 72/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Greentree Elementary Middle Venado Middle High Irvine High B+ CA #92/1,170 Nat'l #1,878/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Irvine Unified
• NCES district ID: 0684500
• Math proficiency: 74% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 80% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $92,078
• Composite: 69.17/100
• National rank: #319
• State rank: #31 of 517 in CA

B Composite livability gradescore 76/100

Livability — Irvine

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #100
• US rank: #3537

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C Health & safety C- User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Irvine, CA
• County: Orange County · 3,477,456 people
• City population: 287,839
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• Population (ZIP): 66,126
• Household income: $145,731
• Rent vs Own: 59.5% rent · 40.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 13% of renters

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Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,477,456 people
• By 2030: 3,613,117 · +3.9%
• By 2040: 3,835,945 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 3,968,736 · +14.1%
• By 2075: 4,097,053 · +17.8%
• By 2100: 3,903,633 · +12.3%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: Asian 48% White 33% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 10% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Romanian 2% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 42% · China, South Korea, Canada
• Languages at home: 44% English-only · Chinese 15% Other Indo-European 10% Korean 8%

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Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.7% · R 47.1% · Other 3.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.2pp toward D · 2008: -2.6pp · 2024: 2.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+2.6 2020: D+9.0 2016: D+7.7 2012: R+8.3 2008: R+2.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.64%
• Current HPI: 441.9409
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.14%
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-02-23 Listed $168,900 CRMLS