1847 Pointed Leaf Ln

Wright, FL 32547

$243,000D

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,496 sqft · Built 1999 · Townhouse · Active · 105 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,965/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,274
• Tax + insurance: −$253
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$413
• Net cashflow: $25/mo
• Annual: $299/yr
• Cap rate: 6.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.44%
• DSCR: 1.02
• 1% rule: 0.81%
• Cash to close: $68,040

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath townhouse listed at $243k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $25 ($299/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $196k (19.1% below list).
• It's been on market 105 days — a 9% lower offer ($221k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $196k (19.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#117 in FL, #1,790 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F.
• Okaloosa (other): math 60% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #12 of 73 in FL (top 16%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 232 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,268 units permitted in Okaloosa County in 2024 (175 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Okaloosa County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 9 sale attempts since 28y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $17k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $193k; 26% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 4.2% in Wright — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 105 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.