113 Lake Muskoday Rd

Roscoe, NY 12776

$228,500F

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 408 sqft · Built 1973 · Manufactured · Active · 23 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,412/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,198
• Tax + insurance: −$418
• HOA: −$29
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$296
• Net cashflow: $-530/mo
• Annual: $-6,361/yr
• Cap rate: 3.51%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.94%
• DSCR: 0.56
• 1% rule: 0.62%
• Cash to close: $63,980

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $228k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-530 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $135k (41.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $141k (38.2% below list).
• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($225k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $135k (41.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $14k appreciation (6.1% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,100 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A, housing B; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Roscoe Central School District (rural): math 35% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #689 of 755 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 39 active listings in the ZIP; 739 units permitted in Sullivan County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Sullivan County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 3.5% vs local median 1.3% in Roscoe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.