113 Lake Muskoday Rd · Roscoe, NY 12776

$228,500

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 408 sqft · Manufactured public records · 22 Days on market

Built 1973 0.46 ac lot $29/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 23% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +8.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.1/30.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.2/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Dreamed of owning an affordable upstate New York property with lake access to enjoy life to its fullest? Quiet, private, 65-acre non-motorboat lake where you can enjoy fishing, paddling, swimming, hiking and biking within 20 minutes of ROSCOE, NY. Charming 3 bedroom, 1 bath with one level living, large kitchen and living room, covered porch to entertain and enjoy the peaceful lifestyle at the lake. New laminate flooring, new interior paint, new on-demand hot water, newer well head, dryer and washer hook-ups, wall A/C for those few hot days, shed (10x20) for storing lake essentials…. boats and paddles. Live and work (high speed internet) from this year-round home in the Catskills wher

Key facts

• Non motorboat lake
• Paddling
• Swimming

Tags

• LAKE ACCESS
• NON MOTORBOAT LAKE
• FISHING
• PADDLING
• SWIMMING
• HIKING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property condition listed as actual
• HOA & community: Has association (Lake Muskoday HOA); Annual association fee $350 covering common area maintenance; Additional annual fee $350

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Electric service by NYSEG; Septic tank; Cable available; Electricity connected
• Home design: Manufactured house (single wide); Manufactured on land; Measured living area
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Other foundation
• Exterior features: Level, partly wooded and private lot; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Bedroom on the first floor
• Flooring: Hardwood; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (oil); Wall/window air conditioning units
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; Eat-in kitchen; Six total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $228k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-530 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $135k (41.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $141k (38.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $135k (41.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 3.5% vs local median 1.3% in Roscoe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,100 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A, housing B; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Roscoe Central School District (rural): math 35% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #689 of 755 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 39 active listings in the ZIP; 739 units permitted in Sullivan County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $14k appreciation (6.1% local appreciation)).
• Sullivan County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($225k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $134,861 (41.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.62% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.51%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.94%
• DSCR: 0.56
• GRM: 13.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.14% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.53×
• Total profit: $34,192
• Equity at exit: $145,685

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.98×
• Total profit: $126,635
• Equity at exit: $265,971

Cash invested: $63,980 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12776

• Home prices YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 39
• Price-to-rent: 13.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,412 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,198
• Tax from tax record: −$323 /mo · $3,874/yr
• Insurance: −$95
• HOA: −$29
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$296
• Net cashflow: $-530

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,083

Max offer price $134,861

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-401	-5% $-465	+0% $-530	+5% $-595	+10% $-659
Rent	-10% $-642	-5% $-586	+0% $-530	+5% $-474	+10% $-419
Rate	-1.0pp $-415	-0.5pp $-472	base $-530	+0.5pp $-589	+1.0pp $-650

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,125
• Closing costs: $6,855
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $29 · $348/yr
• Likely covers: waterinternet

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $228,500 Active 22 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $228,500 Active 20 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $228,500 Active 19 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $228,500 Active 18 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $228,500 Active 17 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $228,500 Active 15 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $228,500 Active 14 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $228,500 Active 11 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $228,500 Active 10 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $228,500 Active 9 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $228,500 Active 8 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $228,500 Active 5 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $228,500 Active 4 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $228,500 Active 3 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $228,500 Active 2 DOM
16. 2026-05-29
    listed $228,500 Active
17. 2025-11-05
    historical
18. 2025-07-04
    listed $295,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,874 · $323/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,874 · $323/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥87°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,941
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,800
• − Property taxes: −$3,874
• − Insurance: −$1,142
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,355
• − Management: −$1,355
• − HOA: −$348
• − Depreciation: −$6,647
• Taxable loss: −$10,581
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,540
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,821/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Roscoe Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3625020
• Math proficiency: 35% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $50,743
• Composite: 33.05/100
• National rank: #10658
• State rank: #689 of 755 in NY

Livability — Roscoe

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1100
• US rank: #22431

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime F Employment C Housing B Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,046

Population outlook (Sullivan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,974 people
• By 2030: 65,609 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 58,878 · -14.6%
• By 2050: 52,500 · -23.9%
• By 2075: 39,941 · -42.1%
• By 2100: 28,880 · -58.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 6%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 5% Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sullivan

• 2024 margin: R (+16.7) · D 41.6% · R 58.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.2pp toward R · 2008: 9.5pp · 2024: -16.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.7 2020: R+9.2 2016: R+13.7 2012: D+10.4 2008: D+9.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.14%
• Current HPI: 298.015
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-22.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $228,500 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-05 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-04 Listed $295,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+15.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,874 · +134.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.