2020 Choctaw Path

Hermann, MO 65041

$60,000B

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 924 sqft · Built 1990 · Manufactured · Active · 14 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $883/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$315
• Tax + insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$30
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$185
• Net cashflow: $253/mo
• Annual: $3,032/yr
• Cap rate: 11.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.05%
• DSCR: 1.80
• 1% rule: 1.47%
• Cash to close: $16,800

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $60k. Condition is rated poor.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $253 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($883 rent vs $60k).
• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $415 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#66 in MO, #4,524 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Gasconade County R-I (rural): math 44% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #86 of 324 in MO (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hermann Elem. (math 24% / reading 44%, grade F, #676 of 1,115 statewide, top 66%, 249 students, 51% FRL); Hermann Middle (math 49% / reading 46%, grade C-, #88 of 391 statewide, top 24%, 293 students, 52% FRL); Hermann High (math 42% / reading 62%, grade D+, #92 of 521 statewide, top 20%, 323 students, 38% FRL).
• Market conditions: 62 active listings in the ZIP; 5 units permitted in Gasconade County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Gasconade County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 11.3% vs local median 2.5% in Hermann — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: kitchen cabinets — severe wear and tear
• Major: bathroom fixtures — dated and worn
• Major: exterior siding — visible wear
• Major: interior walls — peeling wallpaper
• Major: HVAC/mechanicals — photos do not show, but likely outdated