2020 Choctaw Path · Gasconade, MO 65041

$60,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 924 sqft · Manufactured · 14 Days on market

Built 1990 Poor condition 5,009 sqft lot $30/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 8% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Appreciation +3.0/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0

Listing remarks

Embrace the ultimate waterfront lifestyle with this fantastic recreational property featuring both lake and river access! This 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom manufactured home will need some tender love and care but provides a comfortable retreat and concrete driveway. Enjoy exclusive access to the scenic Gasconade River, featuring a boat ramp and a gravel bar -- ideal for fishing, boating, or just soaking up the sun! Take advantage of excellent community perks, including a refreshing swimming pool, a kitchen, a spacious pavilion, and several shared common areas around the lake. A dedicated group of community volunteers host engaging events and social gatherings tailored for both children and adults

Key facts

• 5,009 sq ft lot
• Community pool
• Built 1990

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area reported as 924 (public records); Address: 2020 Choctaw Path, Hermann, MO 65041; Directions available from Hermann via Hwy 100 West to Gascony Village
• Financial info: Property listed at auction
• HOA & community: Part of Gascony Village association; Annual association fee of $360; HOA amenities include barbecue, pool, recreational facilities, trash service, common area and grounds maintenance, and parking/road maintenance

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway parking
• Utilities: Community water; Electricity connected (single phase); Sewer: Unknown
• Home design: Mobile home; Single-story; Residential property
• Construction: Metal siding; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Front porch and rear porch; Gravel road access; Lot roughly 60 x 75 (approximately); Lot features: Other

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (both on the main level)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Electric cooling
• Interior features: Electric cooktop

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $60k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $253 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($883 rent vs $60k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#876 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Gasconade County R-I (rural): math 44% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #86 of 324 in MO (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hermann Elem. (math 24% / reading 44%, grade F, #676 of 1,115 statewide, top 66%, 249 students, 51% FRL); Hermann High (math 42% / reading 62%, grade D+, #92 of 521 statewide, top 20%, 323 students, 38% FRL).
• Market conditions: 62 active listings in the ZIP; 5 units permitted in Gasconade County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $415 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Gasconade County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $60,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.47% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.05%
• DSCR: 1.80
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.38×
• Total profit: $6,403
• Equity at exit: $8,946

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.57×
• Total profit: $26,428
• Equity at exit: $5,188

Cash invested: $16,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65041

• Home prices YoY: -1.3%
• Active inventory: 62
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $883 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$315
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$75 /mo · $900/yr
• Insurance: −$25
• HOA: −$30
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$185
• Net cashflow: $253

Break-even live

Break-even rent $563

Max offer price $60,000

Occupancy floor 66%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $294	-5% $273	+0% $253	+5% $232	+10% $211
Rent	-10% $183	-5% $218	+0% $253	+5% $288	+10% $322
Rate	-1.0pp $283	-0.5pp $268	base $253	+0.5pp $237	+1.0pp $221

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $15,000
• Closing costs: $1,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $30 · $360/yr
• Likely covers: watergaspool

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $60,000 Active 14 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $60,000 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $60,000 Active 11 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $60,000 Active 10 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $60,000 Active 9 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $60,000 Active 8 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $60,000 Active 6 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $60,000 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $60,000 Active 2 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    remarks 699-char remark
11. 2026-06-08
    status $60,000 Active 1 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    pricestatusdays on marketlisting id $60,000 Coming Soon 1 DOM
13. 2025-09-18
    price $59,000 646-char remark
14. 2025-09-02
    listed $65,000 Active 646-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,592
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,361
• − Property taxes: −$900
• − Insurance: −$300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$847
• − Management: −$847
• − HOA: −$360
• − Depreciation: −$1,745
• Taxable income: $2,231
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$535
• After-tax cash flow: $2,497/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This manufactured home requires extensive renovations to bring it up to modern standards, significantly improving its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Major kitchen cabinets — severe wear and tear
• Major bathroom fixtures — dated and worn
• Major exterior siding — visible wear
• Major interior walls — peeling wallpaper
• Major HVAC/mechanicals — photos do not show, but likely outdated

Value-add opportunities

• Both update kitchen cabinets and fixtures — modernizing kitchen will appeal to buyers and renters
• Both replace carpeted flooring with hardwood or tile — improves aesthetics and is durable
• Both repair and paint exterior siding — enhances curb appeal and value
• Both replace outdated HVAC/mechanicals — improves comfort and energy efficiency

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen cabinets · severe wear and tear	Major	$15,000–50,000
bathroom fixtures · dated and worn	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior siding · visible wear	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls · peeling wallpaper	Major	$15,000–50,000
HVAC/mechanicals · photos do not show, but likely outdated	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 5 items		$75,000–250,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both update kitchen cabinets and fixtures — modernizing kitchen will appeal to buyers and renters ↑
• Both replace carpeted flooring with hardwood or tile — improves aesthetics and is durable ↑
• Both repair and paint exterior siding — enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both replace outdated HVAC/mechanicals — improves comfort and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gasconade County R-I
• NCES district ID: 2914280
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $44,397
• Composite: 38.92/100
• National rank: #4090
• State rank: #86 of 324 in MO

Livability — Gasconade

• Score: 51/100
• State rank: #876
• US rank: #25260

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,559

Population outlook (Gasconade County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 14,190 people
• By 2030: 13,687 · -3.5%
• By 2040: 12,480 · -12.1%
• By 2050: 11,227 · -20.9%
• By 2075: 8,878 · -37.4%
• By 2100: 6,570 · -53.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 2% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Gasconade

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.2) · D 19.4% · R 79.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -36.2pp toward R · 2008: -24.0pp · 2024: -60.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.2 2020: R+58.3 2016: R+55.8 2012: R+39.2 2008: R+24.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -4.04%
• Current HPI: 307.8
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-7.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Listed $60,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-06-07 Coming Soon $60,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-18 Price Changed $59,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-02 Listed $65,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid