17064 Hawk Ct

Three Rivers, MI 49093

$288,000F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,188 sqft · Built 1995 · SingleFamily · Pending · 41 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,348/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,510
• Tax + insurance: −$193
• HOA: −$13
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$283
• Net cashflow: $-651/mo
• Annual: $-7,816/yr
• Cap rate: 3.58%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.69%
• DSCR: 0.57
• 1% rule: 0.47%
• Cash to close: $80,640

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $288k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-651 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $173k (39.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $135k (53.2% below list).
• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($279k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $135k (53.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#306 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, crime D, amenities F.
• Three Rivers Community Schools (town): math 37% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #200 of 540 in MI (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 178 active listings in the ZIP; 125 units permitted in St. Joseph County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• St. Joseph County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 25 sale attempts since 27y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $164k; list at $288k implies a 76% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 3.6% vs local median 5.2% in Three Rivers — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 53% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.