302 Sheep Hl

Dilley, TX 78017

$66,500C+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 700 sqft · Built 1996 · SingleFamily · Active · 489 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $822/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$349
• Tax + insurance: −$158
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$173
• Net cashflow: $142/mo
• Annual: $1,708/yr
• Cap rate: 8.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.18%
• DSCR: 1.41
• 1% rule: 1.24%
• Cash to close: $18,620

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $66k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $142 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($822 rent vs $66k).
• It's been on market 489 days — a 12% lower offer ($59k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $59k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($460 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (2.9% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#997 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Dilley ISD (town): math 13% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #787 of 826 in TX (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Dilley El (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #3,052 of 4,322 statewide, top 74%, 451 students, 85% FRL); Dilley H S (math 12% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,264 of 1,632 statewide, top 82%, 280 students, 77% FRL) — zoned schools average 81% FRL vs 32% district-wide (49 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 19 active listings in the ZIP; 12 units permitted in Frio County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Frio County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 6 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $4k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (2.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 489 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.