302 Sheep Hl · Dilley, TX 78017

$66,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 700 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 489 Days on market

Built 1996 4,094 sqft lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.9/30.0
• DSCR +8.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.4/10.0
• Appreciation +6.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.6/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Desirable corner property with cute 2 bedroom, 1 bath home. Needs a little TLC prefect investment or rental property. Being sold as is!

Key facts

• 4,094 sq ft lot
• Listed 489 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listing is for sale; Possession at closing/funding
• Financial info: Down payment resources available
• HOA & community: No HOA details provided

Exterior

• Parking: No parking details provided
• Security: No security features listed
• Utilities: City water and sewer
• Home design: Siding exterior; Wood shingle/shake roof; Pre-owned property
• Construction: Wood shingle/shake roof; Siding exterior
• Exterior features: Chain link fence; Storage building / shed; Corner lot with city view; Paved streets with curbs and streetlights; Located within one mile of interstate highway

Interior

• Kitchen: Stove/Range; Refrigerator; Kitchen area (9 x 18)
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom with ceiling fan (11 x 11); Second bedroom (11 x 11)
• Flooring: Carpeting; Linoleum flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Window unit heating; Electric and natural gas heat; Two window air conditioners
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Living and dining area combined; Some window coverings remain; City garbage service; Gas water heater
• Laundry & utility: No specific laundry appliances listed

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $66k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $142 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($822 rent vs $66k).
• Recommended offer: $59k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#997 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Dilley ISD (town): math 13% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #787 of 826 in TX (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Dilley El (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #3,052 of 4,322 statewide, top 74%, 451 students, 85% FRL); Dilley H S (math 12% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,264 of 1,632 statewide, top 82%, 280 students, 77% FRL) — zoned schools average 81% FRL vs 32% district-wide (49 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 19 active listings in the ZIP; 12 units permitted in Frio County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($460 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (2.9% local appreciation)).
• Frio County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (2.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 489 days — a 12% lower offer ($59k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $4k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $58,520 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 489 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.24% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.18%
• DSCR: 1.41
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.93% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.91×
• Total profit: $16,863
• Equity at exit: $29,627

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.56×
• Total profit: $47,710
• Equity at exit: $45,447

Cash invested: $18,620 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78017

• Home prices YoY: 4.4%
• Active inventory: 19
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $822 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$349
• Tax from tax record: −$131 /mo · $1,569/yr
• Insurance: −$28
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$173
• Net cashflow: $142

Break-even live

Break-even rent $642

Max offer price $66,500

Occupancy floor 78%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,625
• Closing costs: $1,995
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 33 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $66,500 Active 489 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $66,500 Active 488 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $66,500 Active 487 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $66,500 Active 486 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $66,500 Active 484 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $66,500 Active 483 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $66,500 Active 480 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $66,500 Active 479 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $66,500 Active 478 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $66,500 Active 477 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $66,500 Active 474 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $66,500 Active 473 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    statusdays on market $66,500 Active 472 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $66,500 Back on Market 471 DOM
15. 2026-05-21
    status Back on Market
16. 2026-05-10
    status Pending
17. 2026-04-30
    historical Active Option
18. 2026-02-02
    status Back on Market
19. 2025-12-11
    soldstatus
20. 2025-12-02
    historical
21. 2025-10-27
    status Back on Market
22. 2025-09-24
    historical Active Option
23. 2025-04-10
    price $66,500
24. 2024-12-02
    listed $71,000 New
25. 2023-11-17
    soldstatus
26. 2023-11-10
    soldstatus Sold 136-char remark

    Show marketing remark (136 chars)

    Desirable corner property with cute 2 bedroom, 1 bath home. Needs a little TLC prefect investment or rental property. Being sold as is!

27. 2023-11-08
    status Pending 136-char remark

    Show marketing remark (136 chars)

    Desirable corner property with cute 2 bedroom, 1 bath home. Needs a little TLC prefect investment or rental property. Being sold as is!

28. 2023-10-23
    historical Active Option 136-char remark

    Show marketing remark (136 chars)

    Desirable corner property with cute 2 bedroom, 1 bath home. Needs a little TLC prefect investment or rental property. Being sold as is!

29. 2023-07-29
    price $65,000 136-char remark

    Show marketing remark (136 chars)

    Desirable corner property with cute 2 bedroom, 1 bath home. Needs a little TLC prefect investment or rental property. Being sold as is!

30. 2023-06-10
    listed $75,000 New 136-char remark

    Show marketing remark (136 chars)

    Desirable corner property with cute 2 bedroom, 1 bath home. Needs a little TLC prefect investment or rental property. Being sold as is!

31. 2005-05-20
    soldstatus 102-char remark

    Show marketing remark (102 chars)

    NICE TIDDY HOUSE, FRESH PAINT, ROOF REPLACED RECENTLY, CORNER LOT, FENCED YARD APPROX. 700 SQUARE FEET

32. 2005-05-20
    soldstatus

    Show marketing remark (102 chars)

    NICE TIDDY HOUSE, FRESH PAINT, ROOF REPLACED RECENTLY, CORNER LOT, FENCED YARD APPROX. 700 SQUARE FEET

33. 2004-07-19
    listed $25,000 102-char remark

    Show marketing remark (102 chars)

    NICE TIDDY HOUSE, FRESH PAINT, ROOF REPLACED RECENTLY, CORNER LOT, FENCED YARD APPROX. 700 SQUARE FEET

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,569 · $131/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,569 · $131/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥111°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,867
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,725
• − Property taxes: −$1,569
• − Insurance: −$332
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$789
• − Management: −$789
• − Depreciation: −$1,935
• Taxable income: $727
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$174
• After-tax cash flow: $1,534/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dilley ISD
• NCES district ID: 4817100
• Math proficiency: 13% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $43,032
• Composite: 15.55/100
• National rank: #9296
• State rank: #787 of 826 in TX

Livability — Dilley

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #997
• US rank: #17714

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dilley, TX
• Population (ZIP): 6,160

Population outlook (Frio County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 22,420 people
• By 2030: 24,445 · +9.0%
• By 2040: 28,783 · +28.4%
• By 2050: 33,604 · +49.9%
• By 2075: 46,166 · +105.9%
• By 2100: 52,553 · +134.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 74% Two or more races 24% White 18% Black 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 46% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% English 1% Lithuanian 0%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada
• Languages at home: 47% English-only · Spanish 52% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Frio

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.6) · D 37.5% · R 62.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -43.3pp toward R · 2008: 18.7pp · 2024: -24.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.6 2020: R+7.6 2016: D+6.3 2012: D+20.6 2008: D+18.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.93%
• Current HPI: 69.0791
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+166.0% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Relisted — LERA
• 2026-05-10 Pending — LERA
• 2026-04-30 Contingent — LERA
• 2026-02-02 Relisted — LERA
• 2025-12-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-12-02 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2025-10-27 Relisted — LERA
• 2025-09-24 Contingent — LERA
• 2025-04-10 Price Changed $66,500 LERA
• 2024-12-02 Listed $71,000 LERA
• 2023-11-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-11-10 Sold (MLS) — LERA
• 2023-11-08 Pending — LERA
• 2023-10-23 Contingent — LERA
• 2023-07-29 Price Changed $65,000 LERA
• 2023-06-10 Listed $75,000 LERA
• 2005-05-20 Sold (MLS) — LERA
• 2005-05-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2004-07-19 Listed $25,000 LERA

Property tax history

+8.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,569 · +12.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.