1396 Kalahari Desert Dr

Chaparral, NM 88081

$145,000D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 851 sqft · Built 2024 · SingleFamily · Active · 29 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,041/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax + insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$219
• Net cashflow: $-34/mo
• Annual: $-409/yr
• Cap rate: 6.01%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.01%
• DSCR: 0.96
• 1% rule: 0.72%
• Cash to close: $40,600

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $145k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-34 ($-409/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $139k (4.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $104k (28.2% below list).
• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($143k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $104k (28.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (2.9% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 45/100 on livability (#342 in NM) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Gadsden Independent Schools (rural): math 20% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #21 of 29 in NM (top 72%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 95% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Alta Vista Early College High School (math 30% / reading 70%, grade D+, #36 of 110 statewide, top 45%, 201 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools at 100% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 50% at this address vs 27% district-wide (+23 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Gadsden Independent Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 99 active listings in the ZIP; 6 units permitted in Otero County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Otero County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 4% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• At projected returns (2.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.