1396 Kalahari Desert Dr · Chaparral, NM 88081

$145,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 851 sqft · SingleFamily · 29 Days on market

Built 2024 1.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.5/10.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Livability +2.2/5.0

Key facts

• 1 acre lot
• Built 2024
• Listed 29 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-34 ($-409/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $139k (4.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $104k (28.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $104k (28.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 45/100 on livability (#342 in NM) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Gadsden Independent Schools (rural): math 20% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #21 of 29 in NM (top 72%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 95% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Alta Vista Early College High School (math 30% / reading 70%, grade D+, #36 of 110 statewide, top 45%, 201 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools at 100% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 50% at this address vs 27% district-wide (+23 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Gadsden Independent Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 99 active listings in the ZIP; 6 units permitted in Otero County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (2.9% local appreciation)).
• Otero County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (2.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($143k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 4% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Recommended offer $104,094 (28.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.01%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.01%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.93% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.36×
• Total profit: $14,711
• Equity at exit: $64,652

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.38×
• Total profit: $55,970
• Equity at exit: $99,214

Cash invested: $40,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 88081

• Home prices YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 99
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,041 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$36 /mo · $427/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$219
• Net cashflow: $-34

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,084

Max offer price $138,983

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $48	-5% $7	+0% $-34	+5% $-75	+10% $-116
Rent	-10% $-116	-5% $-75	+0% $-34	+5% $7	+10% $48
Rate	-1.0pp $39	-0.5pp $3	base $-34	+0.5pp $-72	+1.0pp $-110

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,250
• Closing costs: $4,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-02
   days on market $145,000 Active 29 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $145,000 Active 28 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $145,000 Active 27 DOM
4. 2026-05-30
   days on market $145,000 Active 26 DOM
5. 2026-05-04
   listed $145,000 Active
6. 2026-04-24
   price $145,000
7. 2026-03-16
   status Active
8. 2026-02-06
   status Pending
9. 2026-02-06
   historical
10. 2026-01-09
    soldstatus
11. 2025-11-01
    listed $140,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NM · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $427 · $36/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,160 · $97/mo
• Expected delta: +$733/yr (+$61/mo · 171.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,491
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,122
• − Property taxes: −$427
• − Insurance: −$725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$999
• − Management: −$999
• − Depreciation: −$4,218
• Taxable loss: −$3,000
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$720
• After-tax cash flow: $311/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gadsden Independent Schools
• NCES district ID: 3501080
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $28,461
• Composite: 21.6/100
• National rank: #8298
• State rank: #21 of 29 in NM

Livability — Chaparral

• Score: 45/100
• State rank: #342
• US rank: #26579

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 18,334

Population outlook (Otero County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 62,967 people
• By 2030: 62,164 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 60,253 · -4.3%
• By 2050: 58,575 · -7.0%
• By 2075: 55,411 · -12.0%
• By 2100: 48,551 · -22.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 89% Two or more races 37% White 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 80% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 33% · Canada
• Languages at home: 25% English-only · Spanish 73%

Political lean MEDSL · Otero

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.0) · D 35.4% · R 62.4% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.7pp toward R · 2008: -19.3pp · 2024: -27.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.0 2020: R+25.6 2016: R+29.1 2012: R+28.0 2008: R+19.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.93%
• Current HPI: 228.645
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+3.6% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $145,000 GEPARMLS
• 2026-03-16 Relisted — GEPARMLS
• 2026-02-06 Pending — GEPARMLS
• 2026-02-06 Listing Removed — GEPARMLS
• 2026-01-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-11-01 Listed $140,000 GEPARMLS

Property tax history

+43.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $427 · +4.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.