12 Lyra Way

Coto de Caza, CA 92679

$1,698,000D-

3 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,970 sqft · Built 1998 · SingleFamily · Active · 35 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $6,550/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$8,904
• Tax + insurance: −$1,209
• HOA: −$385
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,375
• Net cashflow: $-5,324/mo
• Annual: $-63,888/yr
• Cap rate: 2.53%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.44%
• DSCR: 0.40
• 1% rule: 0.39%
• Cash to close: $475,440

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $1.70M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-5k ($-64k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $757k (55.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $655k (61.4% below list).
• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($1.65M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $655k (61.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $84k of equity ($12k loan paydown + $72k appreciation (4.3% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#745 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, crime A-, housing B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Capistrano Unified (suburban): math 50% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #64 of 517 in CA (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Wagon Wheel Elementary (431 students, 15% FRL); Las Flores Middle (571 students, 22% FRL) — zoned schools at 18% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.8%/yr); 126 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 6,974 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (3,839 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Orange County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Current owner paid $383k; list at $1.70M implies a 343% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$135k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 2.5% vs local median 1.7% in Coto de Caza — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($211k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 61% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.