4803 Ahtanum Rd #33

Ahtanum, WA 98903

$44,500B

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · Built 1969 · SingleFamily · Pending · 24 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,641/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$233
• Tax + insurance: −$74
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$345
• Net cashflow: $989/mo
• Annual: $11,863/yr
• Cap rate: 32.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 95.21%
• DSCR: 5.24
• 1% rule: 3.69%
• Cash to close: $12,460

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $44k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $989 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $44k).
• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($44k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $44k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $308 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#414 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• West Valley School District (Yakima) (urban): math 58% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #47 of 291 in WA (top 16%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 172 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 468 units permitted in Yakima County in 2024 (23 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Yakima County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Current owner paid $30k; 48% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $12k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 33.0% vs local median 2.9% in Ahtanum — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.