4803 Ahtanum Rd #33 · Ahtanum, WA 98903

$44,500

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 24 Days on market

Built 1969 $42/sqft · 88% below area ↓ 33% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Spacious mobile home located in a park setting with a comfortable floor plan and great potential! Features a large family room with an adjacent dining area, creating an open and inviting main living space. New flooring has been installed in most of the main areas, adding a fresh touch. Includes parking for 2 vehicles and plenty of opportunity to make it your own with a little TLC. A great option for buyers looking for affordability and the chance to add personal touches!

Key facts

• Large family room
• New flooring
• Adjacent dining area

Tags

• LARGE FAMILY ROOM
• ADJACENT DINING AREA
• NEW FLOORING
• PARKING FOR 2 VEHICLES

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Sewer connected
• Home design: Manufactured home (on leased land); Residential property, R3 multi-family zoning
• Construction: Metal siding
• Exterior features: Level lot; Metal roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Oven
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating
• Interior features: Range and oven included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $44k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $989 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $44k).
• Recommended offer: $44k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 33.0% vs local median 2.9% in Ahtanum — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#414 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• West Valley School District (Yakima) (urban): math 58% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #47 of 291 in WA (top 16%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 172 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 468 units permitted in Yakima County in 2024 (23 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $308 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Yakima County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $12k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($44k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $30k; 48% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $43,832 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.69% ✓
• Cap rate: 32.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 95.21%
• DSCR: 5.24
• GRM: 2.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $416,929
• List price: $44,500
• Delta: -89.33%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4605 Ahtanum Rd	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,158 (+10%)	6mo	$331,650	$286	68
5705 W Larch Ave	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,148 (+9%)	3mo	$408,990	$356	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 96.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.48×
• Total profit: $55,779
• Equity at exit: $6,635

10-year hold

• IRR: 98.8%
• Equity multiple: 11.41×
• Total profit: $129,750
• Equity at exit: $3,848

Cash invested: $12,460 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98903

• Home prices YoY: -21.8%
• Active inventory: 172
• Price-to-rent: 2.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,641 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$233
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$56 /mo · $668/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$345
• Net cashflow: $989

Break-even live

Break-even rent $389

Max offer price $44,500

Occupancy floor 35%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,125
• Closing costs: $1,335
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2404 Woolsey Rd Unit 4 Yakima, WA	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,600	$1.07	21d	1	0.11mi
2404 Woolsey Rd Unit 13 Yakima, WA	2.0	2.5	1100	$1,450	$1.32	21d	1	0.11mi
2301 S 58th Ave Yakima, WA	3.0	2.0	1408	$2,600	$1.85	21d	1	0.63mi
6104 Cottonwood Loop Yakima, WA	3.0	2.0	1412	$2,400	$1.70	21d	1	0.81mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-18
   status Pending 475-char remark
2. 2026-04-24
   listed $44,500 Active 475-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 43% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 14 unhealthy d/yr today · 16 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,688
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,493
• − Property taxes: −$668
• − Insurance: −$222
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,575
• − Management: −$1,575
• − Depreciation: −$1,295
• Taxable income: $11,861
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,847
• After-tax cash flow: $9,017/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: West Valley School District (Yakima)
• NCES district ID: 5309720
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $61,876
• Composite: 54.99/100
• National rank: #2784
• State rank: #47 of 291 in WA

Livability — Ahtanum

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #414
• US rank: #16603

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime B+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ahtanum, WA
• Population (ZIP): 19,010

Population outlook (Yakima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 256,514 people
• By 2030: 259,403 · +1.1%
• By 2040: 265,677 · +3.6%
• By 2050: 273,061 · +6.5%
• By 2075: 296,991 · +15.8%
• By 2100: 315,291 · +22.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 42% Two or more races 19% Asian 3% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Portuguese 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 33% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Yakima

• 2024 margin: R (+14.3) · D 41.6% · R 55.9% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.8pp toward R · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -14.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.3 2020: R+7.7 2016: R+15.4 2012: R+15.1 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.90%
• Current HPI: 300.5753
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

-32.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Price Changed $30,000 YAMLS
• 2026-05-28 Sold (MLS) $30,000 YAMLS
• 2026-05-18 Pending — YAMLS
• 2026-04-24 Listed $44,500 YAMLS

Property tax history

-8.6%/yr

Latest (2026): $42 · -8.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.