8074 Perry Creek Rd #31

Grizzly Flats, CA 95684

$85,500B-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,016 sqft · Built 1990 · Manufactured · Pending · 286 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,319/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$448
• Tax + insurance: −$142
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$487
• Net cashflow: $1,241/mo
• Annual: $14,896/yr
• Cap rate: 23.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 62.22%
• DSCR: 3.77
• 1% rule: 2.71%
• Cash to close: $23,940

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $86k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $86k).
• It's been on market 286 days — a 12% lower offer ($75k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $75k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $591 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#914 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime B+; Watch: employment D, schools F, amenities F.
• Pioneer Union Elementary (rural): math 30% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #638 of 1,400 in CA (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 88 active listings in the ZIP; 437 units permitted in El Dorado County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• El Dorado County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 23.7% vs local median 3.7% in Grizzly Flats — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 286 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.