8074 Perry Creek Rd #31 · Grizzly Flats, CA 95684

$85,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,016 sqft · Manufactured public records · 286 Days on market

Built 1990 5,000 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Space 31 in the peaceful Crystal Cave Mobile Home Park. This 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home offers 1,035 square feet of comfortable living in a serene, park-like setting. The home features a functional layout with ample natural light and room to make it your own. Enjoy the quiet surroundings, mature trees, and well-maintained grounds of one of the area's nicest parks. A great opportunity for affordable living in a tranquil environment.

Key facts

• Tranquil environment
• 5,000 sq ft lot
• Built 1990

Tags

• WELL-MAINTAINED GROUNDS
• TRANQUIL ENVIRONMENT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size approximately 0.11 acre; Lot size approximately 5,000 sq ft; Located at 8074 Perry Creek Rd #31, Somerset, CA 95684; Corner location; directions: Omo Ranch to Fairplay Rd to Whistler
• Financial info: Land lease: No (land lease amount listed separately)
• HOA & community: No homeowners association; Not a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Private water; Private sewer
• Home design: Manufactured home in park; Double-wide; Made by Sunpointe; Built in 1990; Wood skirting
• Construction: Other roof
• Exterior features: Corner lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Breakfast area (kitchen feature)
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Tub and tub with shower over
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Cathedral/vaulted living room ceiling; Breakfast area; Breakfast nook
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside with 220-volt outlet

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $86k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $86k).
• Recommended offer: $75k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 23.7% vs local median 3.7% in Grizzly Flats — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#914 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime B+; Watch: employment D, schools F, amenities F.
• Pioneer Union Elementary (rural): math 30% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #638 of 1,400 in CA (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 88 active listings in the ZIP; 437 units permitted in El Dorado County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $591 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• El Dorado County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 286 days — a 12% lower offer ($75k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $75,240 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 286 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.71% ✓
• Cap rate: 23.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 62.22%
• DSCR: 3.77
• GRM: 3.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 61.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.73×
• Total profit: $65,239
• Equity at exit: $12,748

10-year hold

• IRR: 65.8%
• Equity multiple: 7.63×
• Total profit: $158,752
• Equity at exit: $7,392

Cash invested: $23,940 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95684

• Home prices YoY: -5.0%
• Active inventory: 88
• Price-to-rent: 3.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,319 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$448
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$107 /mo · $1,282/yr
• Insurance: −$36
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$487
• Net cashflow: $1,241

Break-even live

Break-even rent $748

Max offer price $85,500

Occupancy floor 41%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,375
• Closing costs: $2,565
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-15
   status $85,500 Pending 286 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $85,500 Active 286 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $85,500 Active 284 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $85,500 Active 283 DOM
5. 2026-06-10
   days on market $85,500 Active 281 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $85,500 Active 280 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $85,500 Active 279 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $85,500 Active 278 DOM
9. 2026-06-05
   days on market $85,500 Active 275 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $85,500 Active 274 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $85,500 Active 273 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $85,500 Active 272 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $85,500 Active 271 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 27 unhealthy d/yr today · 31 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,830
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,789
• − Property taxes: −$1,282
• − Insurance: −$428
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,226
• − Management: −$2,226
• − Depreciation: −$2,487
• Taxable income: $14,391
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,454
• After-tax cash flow: $11,442/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pioneer Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0630480
• Math proficiency: 30% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $52,807
• Composite: 39.11/100
• National rank: #8246
• State rank: #638 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Grizzly Flats

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #914
• US rank: #24125

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,637

Population outlook (El Dorado County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 191,666 people
• By 2030: 193,662 · +1.0%
• By 2040: 192,583 · +0.5%
• By 2050: 185,904 · -3.0%
• By 2075: 169,543 · -11.5%
• By 2100: 139,623 · -27.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 11% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Russian 7% Romanian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 6% Chinese 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · El Dorado

• 2024 margin: R (+12.0) · D 42.6% · R 54.6% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.5pp toward R · 2008: -10.5pp · 2024: -12.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+12.0 2020: R+8.8 2016: R+13.9 2012: R+18.2 2008: R+10.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.72%
• Current HPI: 240.1455
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Property tax history

-0.0%/yr

Latest (2023): $36 · -0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.