The Oakshire II Plan

Weston Lakes, TX 77441

$313,990F

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,897 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 379 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,502/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,843
• Tax + insurance: −$586
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$525
• Net cashflow: $-453/mo
• Annual: $-5,432/yr
• Cap rate: 4.75%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.52%
• DSCR: 0.75
• 1% rule: 0.71%
• Cash to close: $98,424

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $314k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-453 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $286k (8.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $250k (20.3% below list).
• It's been on market 379 days — a 12% lower offer ($276k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $250k (20.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,122 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Lamar CISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #116 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 1213 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 1.5% in Weston Lakes — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent is only 16% of the median local income ($184k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 379 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.