The Oakshire II Plan · Weston Lakes, TX 77441

$313,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,897 sqft · SingleFamily · 379 Days on market

↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.4/30.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• DSCR +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Oakshire II is a best-selling, one-story home offering four bedrooms, two full bathrooms, and a large covered rear patio. A quaint covered front porch welcomes you into the home with a formal living room on the opposite side of the garage that can be optioned into a home office/study. The open-concept kitchen, breakfast, and family room area lends itself to a ton of natural light and a cohesive main gathering area. The primary suite is situated at the back of the home for maximum privacy, and a private hallway off the kitchen leads into the three secondary bedrooms and a full bathroom.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Covered rear patio
• Open-concept kitchen

Tags

• COVERED REAR PATIO
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• FORMAL LIVING ROOM
• OPEN-CONCEPT KITCHEN
• NATURAL LIGHT
• PRIMARY SUITE

🏗️ New construction. The $313,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $351,515.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $314k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-453 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $286k (8.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $250k (20.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $250k (20.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 1.5% in Weston Lakes — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,122 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Lamar CISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #116 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 1213 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 16% of the median local income ($184k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 379 days — a 12% lower offer ($276k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $250,198 (20.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 379 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.75%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.52%
• DSCR: 0.75
• GRM: 11.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $351,515
• List price: $313,990
• Delta: -10.68%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8135 Red Shiner Way	0.18mi	4/2.0	1,897 (0%)	3mo	$359,895	$190	89
32438 Slender Spreadwing Dr	0.30mi	4/2.0	1,897 (0%)	2mo	$348,275	$184	84
8130 Red Shiner Way	0.16mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,924 (+1%)	2mo	$285,000	$148	83
7902 Wandering Glider Dr	0.31mi	4/2.0	1,897 (0%)	4mo	$354,760	$187	82
32303 Comet Darner Way	0.24mi	4/2.0	1,925 (+2%)	7mo	$300,000	$156	81
8126 Red Shiner Way	0.16mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,826 (-4%)	4mo	$340,670	$187	78
8315 Red Shiner Way	0.22mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,826 (-4%)	1mo	$318,990	$175	77
32310 Comet Darner Way	0.19mi	4/2.5	1,749 (-8%)	5mo	$344,900	$197	72
32307 Comet Darner Way	0.22mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,673 (-12%)	1mo	$334,900	$200	64
8319 Red Shiner Way	0.22mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,710 (-10%)	5mo	$324,975	$190	64
8014 Wandering Glider Dr	0.38mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,640 (-14%)	1mo	$324,990	$198	54
8034 Wandering Glider Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,640 (-14%)	2mo	$324,155	$198	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -29.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.05×
• Total profit: $-93,087
• Equity at exit: $52,412

10-year hold

• IRR: -47.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.49×
• Total profit: $-146,366
• Equity at exit: $30,393

Cash invested: $98,424 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77441

• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 1213
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,502 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,843
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$439 /mo · $5,273/yr
• Insurance: −$146
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$525
• Net cashflow: $-453

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,075

Max offer price $286,012

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,879
• Closing costs: $10,545
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
31419 Horseshoe Meadow Bend Ln Fulshear, TX	3.0	2.0	1588	$2,100	$1.32	44d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $313,990 Active 379 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $313,990 Active 378 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $313,990 Active 377 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $313,990 Active 376 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $313,990 Active 374 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $313,990 Active 370 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $313,990 Active 369 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $313,990 Active 368 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $313,990 Active 365 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $313,990 Active 364 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $313,990 Active 363 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $313,990 Active 362 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $313,990 Active 361 DOM
14. 2026-01-16
    price $305,990 596-char remark

    Show marketing remark (596 chars)

    The Oakshire II is a best-selling, one-story home offering four bedrooms, two full bathrooms, and a large covered rear patio. A quaint covered front porch welcomes you into the home with a formal living room on the opposite side of the garage that can be optioned into a home office/study. The open-concept kitchen, breakfast, and family room area lends itself to a ton of natural light and a cohesive main gathering area. The primary suite is situated at the back of the home for maximum privacy, and a private hallway off the kitchen leads into the three secondary bedrooms and a full bathroom.

15. 2026-01-16
    price $313,990 596-char remark

    Show marketing remark (596 chars)

    The Oakshire II is a best-selling, one-story home offering four bedrooms, two full bathrooms, and a large covered rear patio. A quaint covered front porch welcomes you into the home with a formal living room on the opposite side of the garage that can be optioned into a home office/study. The open-concept kitchen, breakfast, and family room area lends itself to a ton of natural light and a cohesive main gathering area. The primary suite is situated at the back of the home for maximum privacy, and a private hallway off the kitchen leads into the three secondary bedrooms and a full bathroom.

16. 2025-08-01
    price $311,990 596-char remark

    Show marketing remark (596 chars)

    The Oakshire II is a best-selling, one-story home offering four bedrooms, two full bathrooms, and a large covered rear patio. A quaint covered front porch welcomes you into the home with a formal living room on the opposite side of the garage that can be optioned into a home office/study. The open-concept kitchen, breakfast, and family room area lends itself to a ton of natural light and a cohesive main gathering area. The primary suite is situated at the back of the home for maximum privacy, and a private hallway off the kitchen leads into the three secondary bedrooms and a full bathroom.

17. 2025-08-01
    price $303,990 596-char remark

    Show marketing remark (596 chars)

    The Oakshire II is a best-selling, one-story home offering four bedrooms, two full bathrooms, and a large covered rear patio. A quaint covered front porch welcomes you into the home with a formal living room on the opposite side of the garage that can be optioned into a home office/study. The open-concept kitchen, breakfast, and family room area lends itself to a ton of natural light and a cohesive main gathering area. The primary suite is situated at the back of the home for maximum privacy, and a private hallway off the kitchen leads into the three secondary bedrooms and a full bathroom.

18. 2025-06-04
    listed $309,990 Active 596-char remark

    Show marketing remark (596 chars)

    The Oakshire II is a best-selling, one-story home offering four bedrooms, two full bathrooms, and a large covered rear patio. A quaint covered front porch welcomes you into the home with a formal living room on the opposite side of the garage that can be optioned into a home office/study. The open-concept kitchen, breakfast, and family room area lends itself to a ton of natural light and a cohesive main gathering area. The primary suite is situated at the back of the home for maximum privacy, and a private hallway off the kitchen leads into the three secondary bedrooms and a full bathroom.

19. 2025-02-04
    price $301,990 596-char remark

    Show marketing remark (596 chars)

    The Oakshire II is a best-selling, one-story home offering four bedrooms, two full bathrooms, and a large covered rear patio. A quaint covered front porch welcomes you into the home with a formal living room on the opposite side of the garage that can be optioned into a home office/study. The open-concept kitchen, breakfast, and family room area lends itself to a ton of natural light and a cohesive main gathering area. The primary suite is situated at the back of the home for maximum privacy, and a private hallway off the kitchen leads into the three secondary bedrooms and a full bathroom.

20. 2024-12-11
    price $310,990 596-char remark

    Show marketing remark (596 chars)

    The Oakshire II is a best-selling, one-story home offering four bedrooms, two full bathrooms, and a large covered rear patio. A quaint covered front porch welcomes you into the home with a formal living room on the opposite side of the garage that can be optioned into a home office/study. The open-concept kitchen, breakfast, and family room area lends itself to a ton of natural light and a cohesive main gathering area. The primary suite is situated at the back of the home for maximum privacy, and a private hallway off the kitchen leads into the three secondary bedrooms and a full bathroom.

21. 2024-07-03
    price $320,990 596-char remark

    Show marketing remark (596 chars)

    The Oakshire II is a best-selling, one-story home offering four bedrooms, two full bathrooms, and a large covered rear patio. A quaint covered front porch welcomes you into the home with a formal living room on the opposite side of the garage that can be optioned into a home office/study. The open-concept kitchen, breakfast, and family room area lends itself to a ton of natural light and a cohesive main gathering area. The primary suite is situated at the back of the home for maximum privacy, and a private hallway off the kitchen leads into the three secondary bedrooms and a full bathroom.

22. 2024-06-20
    price $315,990 596-char remark

    Show marketing remark (596 chars)

    The Oakshire II is a best-selling, one-story home offering four bedrooms, two full bathrooms, and a large covered rear patio. A quaint covered front porch welcomes you into the home with a formal living room on the opposite side of the garage that can be optioned into a home office/study. The open-concept kitchen, breakfast, and family room area lends itself to a ton of natural light and a cohesive main gathering area. The primary suite is situated at the back of the home for maximum privacy, and a private hallway off the kitchen leads into the three secondary bedrooms and a full bathroom.

23. 2024-06-04
    listed $310,990 Active 596-char remark

    Show marketing remark (596 chars)

    The Oakshire II is a best-selling, one-story home offering four bedrooms, two full bathrooms, and a large covered rear patio. A quaint covered front porch welcomes you into the home with a formal living room on the opposite side of the garage that can be optioned into a home office/study. The open-concept kitchen, breakfast, and family room area lends itself to a ton of natural light and a cohesive main gathering area. The primary suite is situated at the back of the home for maximum privacy, and a private hallway off the kitchen leads into the three secondary bedrooms and a full bathroom.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,024
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,690
• − Property taxes: −$5,273
• − Insurance: −$1,758
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,402
• − Management: −$2,402
• − Depreciation: −$10,226
• Taxable loss: −$11,727
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,814
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,618/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lamar CISD
• NCES district ID: 4826580
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $75,213
• Composite: 46.43/100
• National rank: #2452
• State rank: #116 of 826 in TX

Livability — Weston Lakes

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1122
• US rank: #19641

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 41,324
• Household income: $184,390
• Rent vs Own: 8.0% rent · 92.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 301.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 15% Asian 12% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Romanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 17% German/W. Germanic 4% Chinese 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -154.74%
• Current HPI: 275.8798
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.63%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-1.6% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-16 Price Changed $305,990 Zillow
• 2026-01-16 Price Changed $313,990 Zillow
• 2025-08-01 Price Changed $311,990 Zillow
• 2025-08-01 Price Changed $303,990 Zillow
• 2025-06-04 Listed $309,990 Zillow
• 2025-02-04 Price Changed $301,990 Zillow
• 2024-12-11 Price Changed $310,990 Zillow
• 2024-07-03 Price Changed $320,990 Zillow
• 2024-06-20 Price Changed $315,990 Zillow
• 2024-06-04 Listed $310,990 Zillow