4305 154th St

Urbandale, IA 50323

$209,000D-

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,176 sqft · Built 2006 · Condo · Active · 13 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,550/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,096
• Tax + insurance: −$329
• HOA: −$270
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$326
• Net cashflow: $-470/mo
• Annual: $-5,645/yr
• Cap rate: 3.59%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.65%
• DSCR: 0.57
• 1% rule: 0.74%
• Cash to close: $58,520

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath condo listed at $209k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-470 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $126k (39.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $155k (25.8% below list).
• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $126k (39.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $10k appreciation (4.8% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 90/100 on livability (#4 in IA, #69 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, amenities A+; Watch: commute F.
• Waukee Community School District (suburban): math 80% / reading 79% proficiency, ranked #14 of 289 in IA (top 5%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 11% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 378 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,503 units permitted in Dallas County in 2024 (630 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Dallas County population projected at +74% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $130k; list at $209k implies a 61% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 3.6% vs local median 2.4% in Urbandale — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent is only 11% of the median local income ($176k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.