4305 154th St · Urbandale, IA 50323

$209,000

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,176 sqft · Condo public records · 13 Days on market

Built 2006 $270/mo HOA · 17% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.4/10.0
• Schools +7.1/10.0
• Cash flow +5.2/30.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

2 bedrooms, vaulted ceilings, 2 full baths up. Spacious living area w/ stainless steel appliances. By walking paths, recreational facilities, elementary schools.

Key facts

• Refreshed deck
• Open concept layout
• $270 HOA

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT LAYOUT
• REFRESHED DECK
• WALKING AND BIKING TRAILS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Pets allowed: Cats and dogs
• HOA & community: Homeowners association: Walnut Grove / Edge Mgmt; HOA fee of $270 monthly; HOA covers grounds and structure maintenance, and snow removal

Exterior

• Parking: Attached two-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Natural gas
• Home design: Two-story; Vinyl siding
• Construction: Asphalt shingle roof; Poured slab foundation; Built with vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Deck; Concrete road surface

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator; Stove
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Forced air heating; Natural gas heating
• Interior features: Separate/formal dining room; Smoke detector(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry on upper level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath condo listed at $209k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-470 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $126k (39.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $155k (25.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $126k (39.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 3.6% vs local median 2.4% in Urbandale — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 90/100 on livability (#4 in IA, #69 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, amenities A+; Watch: commute F.
• Waukee Community School District (suburban): math 80% / reading 79% proficiency, ranked #14 of 289 in IA (top 5%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 11% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 378 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,503 units permitted in Dallas County in 2024 (630 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 11% of the median local income ($176k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $10k appreciation (4.8% local appreciation)).
• Dallas County population projected at +74% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $130k; list at $209k implies a 61% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $125,901 (39.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.59%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.65%
• DSCR: 0.57
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.81% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.28×
• Total profit: $16,098
• Equity at exit: $116,000

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.30×
• Total profit: $76,052
• Equity at exit: $198,214

Cash invested: $58,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Iowa: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; mostly landlord-friendly statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 50323

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 378
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,550 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,096
• Tax from tax record: −$242 /mo · $2,904/yr
• Insurance: −$87
• HOA: −$270
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$326
• Net cashflow: $-470

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,146

Max offer price $125,901

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,250
• Closing costs: $6,270
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4307 154th St Urbandale, IA	3.0	2.5	1445	$1,850	$1.28	23d	1	0.01mi
4304 154th St Urbandale, IA	2.0	2.5	1240	$1,595	$1.29	44d	1	0.03mi
4304 153rd Pl Urbandale, IA	2.0	2.5	1240	$1,450	$1.17	21d	1	0.08mi
4315 152nd Ct Urbandale, IA	2.0	2.5	1240	$1,495	$1.21	14d	1	0.13mi
15211 Greenbelt Dr Urbandale, IA	2.0	2.0	1056	$1,450	$1.37	19d	1	0.14mi
15221 Alpine Dr Urbandale, IA	2.0	2.0	1056	$1,550	$1.47	44d	1	0.14mi
15403 Aurora Ave Unit 1 Urbandale, IA	2.0	1.0	800	$999	$1.25	23d	1	0.26mi
4015 154th St Urbandale, IA	3.0	2.5	1428	$2,295	$1.61	19d	1	0.35mi
4454 142nd St Urbandale, IA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	949	$1,190	$1.25	14d	6	0.92mi
3504 163rd St Urbandale, IA	3.0	2.5	1454	$2,245	$1.54	19d	1	1.12mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $270 · $3,240/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-19
   price $209,000 Active 13 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $215,000 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $215,000 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $215,000 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $215,000 Active 10 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $215,000 Active 8 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $215,000 Active 7 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $215,000 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $215,000 Active 4 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $215,000 Active 3 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    remarks 688-char remark
12. 2026-06-07
    listed $215,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,904 · $242/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,093 · $258/mo
• Expected delta: +$189/yr (+$16/mo · 6.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,603
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,707
• − Property taxes: −$2,904
• − Insurance: −$1,045
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,488
• − Management: −$1,488
• − HOA: −$3,240
• − Depreciation: −$6,080
• Taxable loss: −$9,350
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,244
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,401/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waukee Community School District
• NCES district ID: 1930510
• Math proficiency: 80% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 79% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $88,580
• Composite: 70.94/100
• National rank: #245
• State rank: #14 of 289 in IA

Livability — Urbandale

• Score: 90/100
• State rank: #4
• US rank: #69

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Urbandale, IA
• County: Polk County · 453,298 people
• City population: 49,196
• Metro: Des Moines-West Des Moines, IA
• Population (ZIP): 17,265
• Household income: $175,944
• Rent vs Own: 12.8% rent · 87.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 63.0

Population outlook (Dallas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 111,904 people
• By 2030: 127,807 · +14.2%
• By 2040: 160,576 · +43.5%
• By 2050: 194,154 · +73.5%
• By 2075: 271,895 · +143.0%
• By 2100: 326,525 · +191.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Asian 6% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 6% Iranian 5% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China, Philippines
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Chinese 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dallas

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.9% · R 51.7% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.8pp no change · 2008: -5.5pp · 2024: -4.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.8 2020: R+2.0 2016: R+9.6 2012: R+11.8 2008: R+5.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.81%
• Current HPI: 199.789
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Des Moines-West Des Moines, IA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.48%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$16B
▸Retail / Convenience	1	$15B

Price history

+65.5% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed $215,000 DMMLS
• 2017-02-01 Sold (Public Records) $130,000 Public Records
• 2017-01-31 Sold (MLS) $129,900 DMMLS
• 2016-12-19 Listed $129,900 DMMLS
• 2007-03-23 Sold (MLS) $129,900 DMMLS
• 2007-03-02 Listed $129,900 DMMLS

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,904 · +21.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.