1313 Harrison Ave #221

Centralia, WA 98531

$69,900B

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Built 1981 · Other · Active · 480 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,710/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax + insurance: −$107
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$359
• Net cashflow: $877/mo
• Annual: $10,520/yr
• Cap rate: 21.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 53.75%
• DSCR: 3.39
• 1% rule: 2.45%
• Cash to close: $19,572

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $70k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $877 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $70k).
• It's been on market 480 days — a 12% lower offer ($62k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $62k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $483 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#81 in WA, #1,497 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A; Watch: schools C-, crime C-, employment F.
• Centralia School District (town): math 39% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #187 of 291 in WA (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 258 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 265 units permitted in Lewis County in 2024 (44 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lewis County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 5 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (36%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 21.3% vs local median 3.0% in Centralia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 480 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.