Harper Plan

Ellenton, FL 34219

$330,990D

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,665 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 182 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,866/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,764
• Tax + insurance: −$561
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$602
• Net cashflow: $-60/mo
• Annual: $-721/yr
• Cap rate: 6.08%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.77%
• DSCR: 0.97
• 1% rule: 0.85%
• Cash to close: $94,172

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $331k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-60 ($-721/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $328k (1.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $287k (13.4% below list).
• It's been on market 182 days — a 12% lower offer ($291k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $287k (13.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#232 in FL, #3,666 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 2170 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.5% in Ellenton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($114k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 182 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.