Harper Plan · Ellenton, FL 34219

$330,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,665 sqft · SingleFamily · 182 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

A front porch welcomes to you into one-story all concrete block construction home. Designed to optimizes living space with an open concept kitchen that overlooks the versatile great room and large covered lanai. The well-appointed kitchen features an island with bar seating, oversized walk-in pantry and sleek stainless-steel appliances! Bedroom one is located behind the kitchen and has an ensuite bathroom with double vanity and spacious walk-in closet providing substantial storage space. A second bedroom and bath are located at the rear of the home. Just off the great room is the versatile fourth bedroom, perfect to meet your needs. Like all D. R. Horton homes, the Harper includes a 'Home i

Key facts

• Open concept kitchen
• Front porch
• One-story

Tags

• FRONT PORCH
• ONE-STORY
• CONCRETE BLOCK CONSTRUCTION
• OPEN CONCEPT KITCHEN
• GREAT ROOM
• LARGE COVERED LANAI

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Listed price $340,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 garage spaces; 2 total parking spaces
• Home design: Located at 9408 Bella Mar Trl, Parrish, FL 34219
• Exterior features: Living area of 1665

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan named Harper; New construction (Plan)

🏗️ New construction. The $330,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $336,330.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $331k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-60 ($-721/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $328k (1.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $287k (13.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $287k (13.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.5% in Ellenton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#232 in FL, #3,666 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 2170 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($114k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 182 days — a 12% lower offer ($291k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $286,608 (13.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 182 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.08%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.77%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $336,330
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8808 Clear View St	0.25mi	4/2.0	1,665 (0%)	0mo	$334,000	$201	88
8814 Bahama Mia Ln	0.20mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,672 (+0%)	1mo	$337,000	$202	84
8822 Bahama Mia Ln	0.21mi	4/2.0	1,828 (+10%)	1mo	$362,000	$198	73
9009 Sandy Shores St	0.55mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,657 (-0%)	2mo	$400,000	$241	67
8809 Clear View St	0.22mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,504 (-10%)	3mo	$346,064	$230	66
8912 Gulf Shore Ter	0.25mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,555 (-7%)	10mo	$311,250	$200	64
8544 Bella Mar Trl	0.30mi	4/2.0	1,817 (+9%)	10mo	$325,900	$179	62
8520 Bella Mar Trl	0.32mi	4/2.0	1,817 (+9%)	10mo	$364,300	$200	62
8518 Sea Ray Run	0.27mi	4/2.5	1,870 (+12%)	10mo	$369,900	$198	57
8503 Sea Ray Run	0.26mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,448 (-13%)	10mo	$307,000	$212	53
9833 Zennia Ln	0.66mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,533 (-8%)	0mo	$325,000	$212	51
8724 Starry Night Ter	0.59mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,492 (-10%)	1mo	$344,900	$231	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-66,684
• Equity at exit: $50,148

10-year hold

• IRR: -23.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.01×
• Total profit: $-95,280
• Equity at exit: $29,080

Cash invested: $94,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34219

• Home prices YoY: -23.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 2170
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,866 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,764
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$420 /mo · $5,045/yr
• Insurance: −$140
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$602
• Net cashflow: $-60

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,942

Max offer price $327,634

Occupancy floor 97%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $84,082
• Closing costs: $10,090
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9432 Bella Mar Trl Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	2045	$2,699	$1.32	16d	1	0.10mi
8505 Bella Mar Trl Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	1870	$2,750	$1.47	16d	1	0.31mi
9009 Moccasin Wallow Rd Parrish, FL	3.0–4.0	2.5	1581	$2,304	$1.46	1d	32	0.54mi
9224 Bonita Mar Dr Parrish, FL	3.0	2.5	1799	$2,290	$1.27	23d	1	0.54mi
9207 Bonita Mar Dr Parrish, FL	3.0	2.5	1666	$2,275	$1.37	23d	1	0.57mi
9262 Gulf Haven Dr Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.5	2043	$2,750	$1.35	14d	1	0.76mi
7566 Sea Oak Ct Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.5	1807	$2,700	$1.49	21d	1	0.80mi
7562 Sea Oak Ct Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1433	$2,400	$1.67	21d	1	0.81mi
9962 Last Light Gln Parrish, FL	4.0	2.0	1740	$2,495	$1.43	3d	1	0.84mi
10225 Daybreak Gln Parrish, FL	4.0	3.0	1978	$2,600	$1.31	3d	1	0.91mi
7122 87th Ln E Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.0	1593	$2,750	$1.73	23d	1	0.99mi
10416 High Noon Trl Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1412	$2,400	$1.70	3d	1	1.12mi
10120 Abrazo DR Palmetto, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1122	$2,675	$2.38	1d	24	1.23mi
10455 Wet Marsh Cv Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1635	$2,650	$1.62	10d	1	1.24mi
8132 Tea Olive Ter Palmetto, FL	4.0	3.0	1698	$2,500	$1.47	23d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $330,990 Active 182 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $330,990 Active 181 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $330,990 Active 180 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $330,990 Active 179 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $330,990 Active 177 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $330,990 Active 176 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $330,990 Active 174 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $330,990 Active 173 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $330,990 Active 172 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $330,990 Active 171 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $330,990 Active 167 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $330,990 Active 166 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $340,990 Active 165 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $340,990 Active 164 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,393
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,840
• − Property taxes: −$5,045
• − Insurance: −$1,682
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,751
• − Management: −$2,751
• − Depreciation: −$9,784
• Taxable loss: −$6,460
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,550
• After-tax cash flow: $829/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ellenton

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #232
• US rank: #3666

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 14,819
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,296
• Household income: $113,773
• Rent vs Own: 8.1% rent · 91.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 219.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 2% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.45%
• Current HPI: 271.7131
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B