211 Aria Dr

Pacheco, CA 94553

$339,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,500 sqft · Built 2022 · Manufactured · Active · 46 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,389/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,778
• Tax + insurance: −$992
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$712
• Net cashflow: $-92/mo
• Annual: $-1,103/yr
• Cap rate: 7.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.23%
• DSCR: 1.19
• 1% rule: 1.00%
• Cash to close: $94,920

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $339k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-92 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $326k (3.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $339k (0.0% below list).
• It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($329k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $326k (3.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#42 in CA, #1,544 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, cost of living D+, commute D.
• Mt. Diablo Unified (suburban): math 36% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #202 of 517 in CA (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hidden Valley Elementary (math 43% / reading 47%, grade D-, #490 of 1,571 statewide, top 31%, 809 students, 26% FRL); Valley View Middle (math 44% / reading 51%, grade C-, #113 of 498 statewide, top 23%, 777 students, 28% FRL); College Park High (math 56% / reading 70%, grade B-, #184 of 1,170 statewide, top 16%, 1,956 students, 18% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.6%/yr); 188 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,169 units permitted in Contra Costa County in 2024 (896 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Contra Costa County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $275k; 23% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($124k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 4% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.