27967 Coral Shores Rd

Big Pine Key, FL 33042

$530,000F

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 854 sqft · Built 1980 · Manufactured · Active · 69 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,353/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,779
• Tax + insurance: −$863
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$704
• Net cashflow: $-993/mo
• Annual: $-11,919/yr
• Cap rate: 5.01%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.58%
• DSCR: 0.80
• 1% rule: 0.63%
• Cash to close: $148,400

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $530k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-993 ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $355k (33.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $335k (36.7% below list).
• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($498k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $335k (36.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $57k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $53k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#597 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Monroe (town): math 50% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #23 of 73 in FL (top 32%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: 239 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 332 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (42 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Monroe County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $235k; list at $530k implies a 126% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$91k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 0.2% in Big Pine Key — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($103k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 37% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.