27967 Coral Shores Rd · Big Pine Key, FL 33042

$530,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 854 sqft · Manufactured public records · 69 Days on market

Built 1980 4,140 sqft lot Est $389k · 36% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0
• 1% rule +1.3/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Your weekend getaway or call it home! Nice canal with good boating access to Ocean or Gulf, with boat ramp nearby. Price is hard to beat. No community association or HOA to deal with and no fees. .You own the land, Mobile home can be replaced at any time with a mobile home or a house due to the zoning. . This is a comfortable spacious place mobile home is 14 X 61 Florida room 10 X 33 and 10 X 10 screen porch give you added living areas. Split bedroom floor plan with each bedroom at opposite ends of home. Central A/C. Concrete Seawall with step down dock. . No neighbor across street. Front yard has area to create more parking or garden or patio. Storage shed on side. Come see, before it's too late. Connected to central sewer.

Key facts

• Screened patio
• Renovated bathrooms
• Updated kitchen

Tags

• CANAL-FRONT LIVING
• REMODELED HOME
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• RENOVATED BATHROOMS
• IMPACT WINDOWS
• SCREENED PATIO

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in Flood Zone AE; Less than 1/4 acre lot; Zoned URM - Urban Res Mobile Home District; Pets allowed; Rentals allowed with restrictions; 46' concrete dock
• HOA & community: No association fees; No first right of refusal; No HOA services included

Exterior

• Parking: Open parking; Guest parking; Vehicle restrictions apply
• Utilities: FKAA water; Municipal sewer / public sewer hook-up
• Home design: Single wide with addition; Built in 1980
• Construction: Metal roof; Other construction
• Exterior features: Screened patio; Canal view; On the waterfront (canal front)

Interior

• Kitchen: Oven; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central A/C; Electric heat
• Interior features: Laminate flooring; Jalousie windows; Impact-resistant windows; Central A/C; Electric heating; Furnished
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $530k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-993 ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $355k (33.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $335k (36.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $335k (36.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 0.2% in Big Pine Key — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#597 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Monroe (town): math 50% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #23 of 73 in FL (top 32%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 239 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 332 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (42 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($103k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $57k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $53k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Monroe County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$91k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($498k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $235k; list at $530k implies a 126% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $335,331 (36.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 37% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.63% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.01%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.58%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 13.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $389,424
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
27945 Tarpon Ter	0.10mi	2/1.0	870 (+2%)	3mo	$352,000	$405	86
27950 Porgie	0.18mi	2/2.0	840 (-2%)	20mo	$300,000	$357	72
27853 Coral Shores Rd	0.10mi	2/2.0	960 (+12%)	10mo	$520,000	$542	66
28292 Dorothy Ave	0.63mi	2/2.0	830 (-3%)	3mo	$328,000	$395	64
27775 Sea Whip St	0.23mi	2/2.0	920 (+8%)	20mo	$585,000	$636	60
27954 Tarpon Ter	0.07mi	2/1.5	735 (-14%)	16mo	$360,500	$490	58
28131 Helen Ave	0.61mi	2/1.0	856 (+0%)	13mo	$390,000	$456	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.52×
• Total profit: $225,430
• Equity at exit: $477,466

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.81×
• Total profit: $713,677
• Equity at exit: $1,029,673

Cash invested: $148,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33042

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 239
• Price-to-rent: 13.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,353 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,779
• Tax from tax record: −$216 /mo · $2,587/yr
• Insurance: −$221
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$704
• Net cashflow: $-993

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,611

Max offer price $354,539

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $132,500
• Closing costs: $15,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $530,000 Active 69 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $530,000 Active 68 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $530,000 Active 67 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $530,000 Active 66 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $530,000 Active 65 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $530,000 Active 63 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $530,000 Active 62 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $530,000 Active 60 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $530,000 Active 59 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    status $530,000 Active 58 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $530,000 Contingent (Show) 58 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $530,000 Contingent (Show) 57 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $530,000 Contingent (Show) 54 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $530,000 Contingent (Show) 53 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $530,000 Contingent (Show) 52 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $530,000 Contingent (Show) 51 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $530,000 Contingent (Show) 50 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $530,000 Contingent (Show) 49 DOM
19. 2026-05-19
    price $530,000
20. 2026-04-11
    listed $540,000 Active
21. 2021-03-03
    soldstatus $235,000
22. 2021-02-23
    soldstatus $235,000 735-char remark

    Show marketing remark (735 chars)

    Your weekend getaway or call it home! Nice canal with good boating access to Ocean or Gulf, with boat ramp nearby. Price is hard to beat. No community association or HOA to deal with and no fees. .You own the land, Mobile home can be replaced at any time with a mobile home or a house due to the zoning. . This is a comfortable spacious place mobile home is 14 X 61 Florida room 10 X 33 and 10 X 10 screen porch give you added living areas. Split bedroom floor plan with each bedroom at opposite ends of home. Central A/C. Concrete Seawall with step down dock. . No neighbor across street. Front yard has area to create more parking or garden or patio. Storage shed on side. Come see, before it's too late. Connected to central sewer.

23. 2019-11-07
    listed $267,000 735-char remark

    Show marketing remark (735 chars)

    Your weekend getaway or call it home! Nice canal with good boating access to Ocean or Gulf, with boat ramp nearby. Price is hard to beat. No community association or HOA to deal with and no fees. .You own the land, Mobile home can be replaced at any time with a mobile home or a house due to the zoning. . This is a comfortable spacious place mobile home is 14 X 61 Florida room 10 X 33 and 10 X 10 screen porch give you added living areas. Split bedroom floor plan with each bedroom at opposite ends of home. Central A/C. Concrete Seawall with step down dock. . No neighbor across street. Front yard has area to create more parking or garden or patio. Storage shed on side. Come see, before it's too late. Connected to central sewer.

24. 1994-06-23
    soldstatus $85,000
25. 1982-04-01
    soldstatus $25,700

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,587 · $216/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,399 · $367/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,812/yr (+$151/mo · 70.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,240
• − Mortgage interest: −$29,688
• − Property taxes: −$2,587
• − Insurance: −$7,768
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,219
• − Management: −$3,219
• − Depreciation: −$15,418
• Taxable loss: −$21,661
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,199
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,720/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Monroe
• NCES district ID: 1201320
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $56,955
• Composite: 45.51/100
• National rank: #2608
• State rank: #23 of 73 in FL

Livability — Big Pine Key

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #597
• US rank: #11450

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Monroe County · 66,185 people
• Metro: Key West, FL
• Population (ZIP): 6,441
• Household income: $103,041
• Rent vs Own: 17.3% rent · 82.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 146.0

Population outlook (Monroe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 90,706 people
• By 2030: 96,308 · +6.2%
• By 2040: 106,565 · +17.5%
• By 2050: 116,500 · +28.4%
• By 2075: 141,423 · +55.9%
• By 2100: 151,947 · +67.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Two or more races 12% Hispanic / Latino 12% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Slovak 3% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Monroe

• 2024 margin: R (+18.3) · D 40.5% · R 58.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.2pp toward R · 2008: 4.9pp · 2024: -18.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.3 2020: R+7.9 2016: R+6.9 2012: D+0.4 2008: D+4.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.11%
• Current HPI: 491.52
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Key West, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1962.3% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $530,000 FLKMLS
• 2026-04-11 Listed $540,000 FLKMLS
• 2021-03-03 Sold (Public Records) $235,000 Public Records
• 2021-02-23 Sold (MLS) $235,000 FLKMLS
• 2019-11-07 Listed $267,000 FLKMLS
• 1994-06-23 Sold (Public Records) $85,000 Public Records
• 1982-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $25,700 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,587 · +5.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.