20 Ponds Ln

Harrison, NY 10577

$1,795,000D

4 bd · 4.0 ba · 3,856 sqft · Built 1987 · SingleFamily · Pending · 10 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $11,731/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$9,413
• Tax + insurance: −$2,515
• HOA: −$850
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,464
• Net cashflow: $-3,510/mo
• Annual: $-42,124/yr
• Cap rate: 3.95%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.38%
• DSCR: 0.63
• 1% rule: 0.65%
• Cash to close: $502,600

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $1.79M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-4k ($-42k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $1.17M (34.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.17M (34.6% below list).
• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $1.17M (34.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $61k of equity ($12k loan paydown + $48k appreciation (2.7% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#355 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, crime A; Watch: housing C-, amenities F, cost of living F.
• Harrison Central School District (suburban): math 69% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #92 of 590 in NY (top 16%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Purchase School (math 82% / reading 82%, grade A+, #138 of 2,108 statewide, top 8%, 341 students, 6% FRL); Louis M Klein Middle School (math 51% / reading 71%, grade B+, #150 of 729 statewide, top 21%, 824 students, 22% FRL); Harrison High School (math 96%, 1,064 students, 21% FRL).
• Market conditions: 30 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 954 units permitted in Westchester County in 2024 (649 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Westchester County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 4 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $1.19M; list at $1.79M implies a 50% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$152k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 3.9% vs local median 2.2% in Harrison — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.