20 Ponds Ln · Harrison, NY 10577

$1,795,000

4 bd · 4.0 ba · 3,856 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 10 Days on market

Built 1987 0.84 ac lot $466/sqft · 13% below area Est $2069k · 13% under $850/mo HOA · 7% of rent ↓ 34% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.5/15.0
• Schools +6.5/10.0
• Appreciation +6.4/10.0
• Cash flow +5.9/30.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0
• DSCR +0.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Inviting Contemporary in gated community with dramatic 2 story Entrance Hall with double staircase, Walls of Windows looking out into serene golf course views. Impeccably maintained. All new Kitchen Appliances(except for sub zero refrigerator),All new mechanics(3 furnaces, AC's, Hot Water Tank, Built in humidifier, above ground oil tank), House features Master Bedroom on the first level, 2 fireplaces, 1 gas burning, 1 wood burning, Wi-Fi enabled thermostats, surround sound in Family room. Maintenance includes gardening, snow removal, tennis and multi sport court. Additional Information: Amenities:Storage,Tennis,HeatingFuel:Oil Above Ground,ParkingFeatures:2 Car Attached,

Key facts

• Gated community
• Natural light
• Double staircase

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• GOLF COURSE VIEWS
• TWO-STORY ENTRANCE HALL
• DOUBLE STAIRCASE
• NATURAL LIGHT
• SPACIOUS LAYOUT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area recorded from public records
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with monthly fee of $850; Association fee includes grounds care and snow removal

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2-car garage
• Security: Security gate; Security system
• Utilities: Electric service: Con-Edison; Public sewer
• Home design: Single family residence
• Construction: Wood siding construction; Full unfinished basement
• Exterior features: Wood siding; Security gate; Security system; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric cooktop; Electric oven; Microwave; Refrigerator; Stainless steel appliances; Kitchen island; Breakfast bar; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom on the main level; First-floor bedroom
• Flooring: Hardwood; Ceramic tile; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 4 full bathrooms; 2 half bathrooms; Double vanity in master bath
• Heating & cooling: Hot air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; First-floor full bathroom; Beamed ceilings; Breakfast bar; Cathedral ceilings; Chandelier; Crown molding; Double vanity; Eat-in kitchen; Entrance foyer; Formal dining room; High ceilings; His and hers closets; Kitchen island; Open floorplan; Master bedroom on main level; Recessed lighting; Smart thermostat; Sound system; Walk-in closets; Deck (patio/porch feature); Full unfinished basement; Crawl attic; 9 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $1.79M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-4k ($-42k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $1.17M (34.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.17M (34.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $1.17M (34.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.9% vs local median 2.2% in Harrison — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#355 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, crime A; Watch: housing C-, amenities F, cost of living F.
• Harrison Central School District (suburban): math 69% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #92 of 590 in NY (top 16%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Purchase School (math 82% / reading 82%, grade A+, #138 of 2,108 statewide, top 8%, 341 students, 6% FRL); Louis M Klein Middle School (math 51% / reading 71%, grade B+, #150 of 729 statewide, top 21%, 824 students, 22% FRL); Harrison High School (math 96%, 1,064 students, 21% FRL).
• Market conditions: 30 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 954 units permitted in Westchester County in 2024 (649 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $61k of equity ($12k loan paydown + $48k appreciation (2.7% local appreciation)).
• Westchester County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$152k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $1.19M; list at $1.79M implies a 50% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,173,096 (34.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.95%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.38%
• DSCR: 0.63
• GRM: 12.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $2,068,717
• List price: $1,795,000
• Delta: -13.23%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
570 Anderson Hill Rd	0.19mi	4/3.5	3,908 (+1%)	12mo	$1,750,000	$448	77
7 Harrows Ln	0.25mi	5/4.5 (+1)	3,869 (+0%)	8mo	$1,550,000	$401	74
23 Harrows Ln	0.15mi	5/4.5 (+1)	3,458 (-10%)	14mo	$1,825,000	$528	57
23 The Xing	0.69mi	5/4.5 (+1)	3,926 (+2%)	12mo	$1,975,000	$503	48
44 The Xing	0.47mi	3/4.5 (-1)	3,470 (-10%)	19mo	$1,500,000	$432	39
9 The Xing	0.63mi	5/5.5 (+1)	3,516 (-9%)	13mo	$1,925,000	$547	34
20 The Xing	0.64mi	4/5.5	4,292 (+11%)	14mo	$1,250,000	$291	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.7% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.93×
• Total profit: $-35,123
• Equity at exit: $777,121

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.45×
• Total profit: $224,598
• Equity at exit: $1,174,824

Cash invested: $502,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 10577

• Home prices YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 30
• Price-to-rent: 12.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $11,731 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$9,413
• Tax from tax record: −$1,767 /mo · $21,200/yr
• Insurance: −$748
• HOA: −$850
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,464
• Net cashflow: $-3,510

Break-even live

Break-even rent $16,174

Max offer price $1,174,887

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-2,494	-5% $-3,002	+0% $-3,510	+5% $-4,018	+10% $-4,526
Rent	-10% $-4,437	-5% $-3,974	+0% $-3,510	+5% $-3,047	+10% $-2,584
Rate	-1.0pp $-2,606	-0.5pp $-3,054	base $-3,510	+0.5pp $-3,975	+1.0pp $-4,449

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $448,750
• Closing costs: $53,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
29 Old Orchard Rd Rye Brook, NY	4.0	2.0	2672	$6,500	$2.43	0d	1	1.46mi
25 Chieftans Rd Greenwich, CT	3.0	4.5	5458	$17,000	$3.11	20d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $850 · $10,200/yr
• Likely covers: watergasinternetsnow removalsecurity

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-04-27
   listed $1,795,000 Active
2. 2014-06-26
   soldstatus $1,193,500
3. 2014-06-11
   price $1,193,500 Sold 571-char remark

   Show marketing remark (571 chars)

   Inviting Contemporary in gated community with dramatic 2 story Entrance Hall with double staircase, Walls of Windows looking out into serene golf course views. Impeccably maintained. All new Kitchen Appliances(except for sub zero refrigerator), All new mechanics(3 furnaces, AC's, Hot Water Tank, Built in humidifier, above ground oil tank), House features Master Bedroom on the first level, 2 fireplaces, 1 gas burning, 1 wood burning, Wi-Fi enabled thermostats, surround sound in Family room. Maintenance includes gardening, snow removal, tennis and multi sport court.

4. 2014-06-11
   soldstatus $1,193,500 Sold 571-char remark

   Show marketing remark (571 chars)

   Inviting Contemporary in gated community with dramatic 2 story Entrance Hall with double staircase, Walls of Windows looking out into serene golf course views. Impeccably maintained. All new Kitchen Appliances(except for sub zero refrigerator), All new mechanics(3 furnaces, AC's, Hot Water Tank, Built in humidifier, above ground oil tank), House features Master Bedroom on the first level, 2 fireplaces, 1 gas burning, 1 wood burning, Wi-Fi enabled thermostats, surround sound in Family room. Maintenance includes gardening, snow removal, tennis and multi sport court.

5. 2014-06-11
   soldstatus $1,193,500

   Show marketing remark (571 chars)

   Inviting Contemporary in gated community with dramatic 2 story Entrance Hall with double staircase, Walls of Windows looking out into serene golf course views. Impeccably maintained. All new Kitchen Appliances(except for sub zero refrigerator), All new mechanics(3 furnaces, AC's, Hot Water Tank, Built in humidifier, above ground oil tank), House features Master Bedroom on the first level, 2 fireplaces, 1 gas burning, 1 wood burning, Wi-Fi enabled thermostats, surround sound in Family room. Maintenance includes gardening, snow removal, tennis and multi sport court.

6. 2014-03-24
   historical Pending 571-char remark

   Show marketing remark (571 chars)

   Inviting Contemporary in gated community with dramatic 2 story Entrance Hall with double staircase, Walls of Windows looking out into serene golf course views. Impeccably maintained. All new Kitchen Appliances(except for sub zero refrigerator), All new mechanics(3 furnaces, AC's, Hot Water Tank, Built in humidifier, above ground oil tank), House features Master Bedroom on the first level, 2 fireplaces, 1 gas burning, 1 wood burning, Wi-Fi enabled thermostats, surround sound in Family room. Maintenance includes gardening, snow removal, tennis and multi sport court.

7. 2014-03-24
   price $1,195,000 571-char remark

   Show marketing remark (571 chars)

   Inviting Contemporary in gated community with dramatic 2 story Entrance Hall with double staircase, Walls of Windows looking out into serene golf course views. Impeccably maintained. All new Kitchen Appliances(except for sub zero refrigerator), All new mechanics(3 furnaces, AC's, Hot Water Tank, Built in humidifier, above ground oil tank), House features Master Bedroom on the first level, 2 fireplaces, 1 gas burning, 1 wood burning, Wi-Fi enabled thermostats, surround sound in Family room. Maintenance includes gardening, snow removal, tennis and multi sport court.

8. 2014-03-15
   price $915,000
9. 2014-03-14
   listed $1,195,000 Active 571-char remark

   Show marketing remark (571 chars)

   Inviting Contemporary in gated community with dramatic 2 story Entrance Hall with double staircase, Walls of Windows looking out into serene golf course views. Impeccably maintained. All new Kitchen Appliances(except for sub zero refrigerator), All new mechanics(3 furnaces, AC's, Hot Water Tank, Built in humidifier, above ground oil tank), House features Master Bedroom on the first level, 2 fireplaces, 1 gas burning, 1 wood burning, Wi-Fi enabled thermostats, surround sound in Family room. Maintenance includes gardening, snow removal, tennis and multi sport court.

10. 2014-03-12
    listed $1,195,000

    Show marketing remark (682 chars)

    Inviting Contemporary in gated community with dramatic 2 story Entrance Hall with double staircase, Walls of Windows looking out into serene golf course views. Impeccably maintained. All new Kitchen Appliances(except for sub zero refrigerator),All new mechanics(3 furnaces, AC's, Hot Water Tank, Built in humidifier, above ground oil tank), House features Master Bedroom on the first level, 2 fireplaces, 1 gas burning, 1 wood burning, Wi-Fi enabled thermostats, surround sound in Family room. Maintenance includes gardening, snow removal, tennis and multi sport court. Additional Information: Amenities:Storage,Tennis,HeatingFuel:Oil Above Ground,ParkingFeatures:2 Car Attached,

11. 2009-02-11
    soldstatus $915,000
12. 2009-02-02
    soldstatus $915,000
13. 2009-02-02
    historical
14. 2008-12-19
    price $949,000
15. 2008-09-11
    listed $949,000
16. 1988-01-08
    soldstatus $807,300
17. 1986-08-19
    soldstatus $2,730,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $21,200 · $1,767/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $25,768 · $2,147/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,568/yr (+$381/mo · 21.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $140,772
• − Mortgage interest: −$100,548
• − Property taxes: −$21,200
• − Insurance: −$8,975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$11,262
• − Management: −$11,262
• − HOA: −$10,200
• − Depreciation: −$52,218
• Taxable loss: −$74,893
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$17,974
• After-tax cash flow: $-24,149/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harrison Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3613740
• Math proficiency: 69% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 72% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $105,919
• Composite: 65.12/100
• National rank: #497
• State rank: #92 of 590 in NY

Livability — Harrison

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #355
• US rank: #5963

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing C- Health & safety D- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Harrison, NY
• City population: 14,091
• Population (ZIP): 5,901

Population outlook (Westchester County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,028,035 people
• By 2030: 1,051,636 · +2.3%
• By 2040: 1,098,520 · +6.9%
• By 2050: 1,136,044 · +10.5%
• By 2075: 1,196,925 · +16.4%
• By 2100: 1,175,147 · +14.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 10% Black 10% Asian 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 4% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 3% Romanian 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 6% Chinese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Westchester

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+26.3) · D 63.1% · R 36.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.3pp toward R · 2008: 27.6pp · 2024: 26.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+26.3 2020: D+36.3 2016: D+32.8 2012: D+22.2 2008: D+27.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.70%
• Current HPI: 209.3878
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-34.2% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-23 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-27 Listed $1,795,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-06-26 Sold (Public Records) $1,193,500 Public Records
• 2014-06-11 Sold (MLS) $1,193,500 HGMLS
• 2014-06-11 Price Changed $1,193,500 HGMLS
• 2014-06-11 Sold (MLS) $1,193,500 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-03-24 Contingent — HGMLS
• 2014-03-24 Price Changed $1,195,000 HGMLS
• 2014-03-15 Price Changed $915,000 HGMLS
• 2014-03-14 Listed $1,195,000 HGMLS
• 2014-03-12 Listed $1,195,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-02-11 Sold (Public Records) $915,000 Public Records
• 2009-02-02 Delisted — HGMLS
• 2009-02-02 Sold (MLS) $915,000 HGMLS
• 2008-12-19 Price Changed $949,000 HGMLS
• 2008-09-11 Listed $949,000 HGMLS
• 1988-01-08 Sold (Public Records) $807,300 Public Records
• 1986-08-19 Sold (Public Records) $2,730,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $21,200 · -7.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.