152 Alligator Cir

Welaka, FL 32112

$144,900B

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,170 sqft · Built 1985 · Manufactured · Active · 153 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,579/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax + insurance: −$238
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$332
• Net cashflow: $249/mo
• Annual: $2,992/yr
• Cap rate: 8.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.34%
• DSCR: 1.42
• 1% rule: 1.09%
• Cash to close: $40,572

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $145k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $249 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $145k).
• It's been on market 153 days — a 12% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $128k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (2.9% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#878 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Putnam (town): math 34% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #66 of 73 in FL (top 90%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Middleton-Burney Elementary School (math 31% / reading 30%, grade F, #1,862 of 2,144 statewide, top 88%, 1,046 students, 70% FRL); Putnam Academy of Arts And Sciences (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D+, #291 of 571 statewide, top 52%, 177 students, 75% FRL, charter); Crescent City Jr-Sr High School (math 17% / reading 34%, grade F, #499 of 667 statewide, top 75%, 1,005 students, 72% FRL) — zoned schools at 72% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: 145 active listings in the ZIP; 113 units permitted in Putnam County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Putnam County population projected at -31% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (2.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 2.0% in Welaka — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 153 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
• What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
• Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?