152 Alligator Cir · Welaka, FL 32112

$144,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,170 sqft · Manufactured public records · 153 Days on market

Built 1985 8,712 sqft lot Est $174k · 17% under · waterfront ↓ 9% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.2/10.0
• Appreciation +6.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

PRICE IMPROVEMENT AND $3000.00 CREDIT TOWARDS BUYERS CLOSING COST AND PREPAIDS WITH ACCEPTED OFFER. * * Back on the market! This home was previously under contract but is now available again due to circumstances unrelated to the property. No fault of the home--just a second opportunity for buyers to make it theirs! This beautifully REMODELED 2-bedroom, 2-bath home is nestled in a quiet neighborhood, perfect for full-time living, a vacation getaway, or an income-producing investment. Ride your golf cart out the back of your property onto the green. Numerous upgrades include new subfloors and flooring, new walls and insulation. Updated light fixtures, and a brand-new kitchen. HVAC has new m

Key facts

• 8,712 sq ft lot
• Parking
• Built 1985

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Not a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (1 space); Off-street parking
• Utilities: Public sewer; Water connected; Sewer connected; Electricity connected; Cable available
• Home design: Single-story mobile home; One level
• Construction: Metal roof; Workshop on property; Manufactured home construction
• Exterior features: Side porch; On golf course

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Split system cooling; Multiple cooling units
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Kitchen island; Open floorplan; Primary bathroom with tub and shower; Walk-in closet(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; In-unit laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $249 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $145k).
• Recommended offer: $128k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 2.0% in Welaka — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#878 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Putnam (town): math 34% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #66 of 73 in FL (top 90%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 144 active listings in the ZIP; 113 units permitted in Putnam County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (2.9% local appreciation)).
• Putnam County population projected at -31% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (2.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 153 days — a 12% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $127,512 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 153 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
7. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
8. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.34%
• DSCR: 1.42
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $173,745
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
106 Maryland Ave	0.20mi	2/2.0	1,269 (+8%)	4mo	$145,000	$114	74
119 Putter Ln	0.24mi	2/1.0	1,184 (+1%)	16mo	$76,500	$65	70
107 Indiana St	0.18mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,269 (+8%)	6mo	$160,000	$126	68
105 Putter Ln	0.14mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,056 (-10%)	14mo	$168,700	$160	60
115 Lake Dr	0.57mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,196 (+2%)	6mo	$110,000	$92	59
93 Georgia Ave	0.47mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,200 (+3%)	16mo	$125,000	$104	55
123 Peninsular Dr	0.52mi	2/2.0	1,345 (+15%)	3mo	$131,950	$98	48
106 Georgia Ave	0.39mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (+15%)	9mo	$148,000	$110	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.86% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.80×
• Total profit: $32,287
• Equity at exit: $64,016

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.32×
• Total profit: $94,071
• Equity at exit: $97,780

Cash invested: $40,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32112

• Home prices YoY: 1.0%
• Active inventory: 144
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,579 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$111 /mo · $1,333/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$332
• Net cashflow: $249

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,263

Max offer price $144,900

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $331	-5% $290	+0% $249	+5% $208	+10% $167
Rent	-10% $125	-5% $187	+0% $249	+5% $312	+10% $374
Rate	-1.0pp $322	-0.5pp $286	base $249	+0.5pp $212	+1.0pp $174

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,225
• Closing costs: $4,347
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $144,900 Active 153 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $144,900 Active 150 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $144,900 Active 149 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $144,900 Active 148 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $144,900 Active 147 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $144,900 Active 145 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $144,900 Active 141 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $144,900 Active 140 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $144,900 Active 139 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    pricedays on market $144,900 Active 136 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $149,900 Active 135 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,900 Active 134 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,900 Active 133 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,900 Active 132 DOM
15. 2026-04-27
    status Active
16. 2026-04-20
    status Pending
17. 2026-04-06
    status Active
18. 2026-03-31
    status Pending
19. 2026-03-11
    price $149,900
20. 2026-02-23
    price $154,900
21. 2026-02-04
    price $159,300
22. 2026-01-05
    listed $164,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,333 · $111/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,333 · $111/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,943
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,117
• − Property taxes: −$1,333
• − Insurance: −$1,522
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,515
• − Management: −$1,515
• − Depreciation: −$4,215
• Taxable income: $725
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$174
• After-tax cash flow: $2,818/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Putnam
• NCES district ID: 1201620
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $33,350
• Composite: 29.99/100
• National rank: #6361
• State rank: #66 of 73 in FL

Livability — Welaka

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #878
• US rank: #23339

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment F Housing C+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 1,200
• Population (ZIP): 8,099

Population outlook (Putnam County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 65,299 people
• By 2030: 61,255 · -6.2%
• By 2040: 52,930 · -18.9%
• By 2050: 45,051 · -31.0%
• By 2075: 28,720 · -56.0%
• By 2100: 15,852 · -75.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 30% Black 8% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 32% Other Asian/Pacific 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Putnam

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.8) · D 25.8% · R 73.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.5pp toward R · 2008: -19.3pp · 2024: -47.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.8 2020: R+41.2 2016: R+36.6 2012: R+24.5 2008: R+19.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.86%
• Current HPI: 279.58
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-9.1% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Relisted — realMLS
• 2026-04-20 Pending — realMLS
• 2026-04-06 Relisted — realMLS
• 2026-03-31 Pending — realMLS
• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $149,900 realMLS
• 2026-02-23 Price Changed $154,900 realMLS
• 2026-02-04 Price Changed $159,300 realMLS
• 2026-01-05 Listed $164,900 realMLS

Property tax history

+4.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,333 · +9.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.