208 NE Kirby

Castle Rock, WA 98611

$360,000D

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,350 sqft · Built 1940 · MultiFamily · Pending · 3 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,962/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,888
• Tax + insurance: −$300
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$622
• Net cashflow: $152/mo
• Annual: $1,824/yr
• Cap rate: 6.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.81%
• DSCR: 1.08
• 1% rule: 0.82%
• Cash to close: $100,800

Investor read

• This is a 2 × 2-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $360k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $152 ($2k/yr) — positive. Per door: $76/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $296k (17.7% below list).
• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $296k (17.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#209 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Castle Rock School District (town): math 36% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #174 of 291 in WA (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Castle Rock Elementary (702 students, 58% FRL); Castle Rock Middle School (348 students, 56% FRL); Castle Rock High School (449 students, 52% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 144 active listings in the ZIP; 348 units permitted in Cowlitz County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Cowlitz County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 2.1% in Castle Rock — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.