208 NE Kirby · Castle Rock, WA 98611

$360,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,350 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1940 5,227 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks

Excellent investment opportunity in the heart of Castle Rock! This well-maintained duplex features two 2-bedroom, 1-bath units, each with an attached one-car garage, in-unit laundry, and generous basement storage. Major updates include a brand-new roof for added peace of mind. One unit offers hardwood floors throughout, while the second has carpet with hardwood flooring underneath ready to be uncovered. Conveniently located just minutes from the river, downtown amenities, and quick access to I-5, this property offers strong rental appeal in a prime location. One side is currently vacant, great for owner occupied investment opportunity!

Key facts

• Brand new roof
• In unit laundry
• Hardwood floors

Tags

• WELL MAINTAINED DUPLEX
• ATTACHED ONE CAR GARAGE
• IN UNIT LAUNDRY
• GENEROUS BASEMENT STORAGE
• BRAND NEW ROOF
• HARDWOOD FLOORS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Units in building: 2; No units below grade; Vacancy rate: 1%
• Financial info: Total monthly income reported: $1,300; Gross scheduled income: $15,800; Gross adjusted income: $11,991; Net operating income: $11,991; Total expenses: $3,809; Electric expense: $454; Insurance expense: $831; Other expenses: $800; Gross rent multiplier: 22.78; Acceptable financing: Cash, Conventional, FHA, VA Loan

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered spaces; 2 uncovered spaces; 2 garage spaces
• Utilities: Public water (served by City of Castle Rock); Sewer connected (served by City of Castle Rock); Power provided by Cowlitz PUD
• Home design: Duplex (residential income, multi-family); 2 stories; Good condition; Has a view
• Construction: Wood construction; Composition roof; Block foundation; Effective year built 1940
• Exterior features: Wood products exterior; Corner lot; Paved lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Range/oven in both units; Refrigerator in both units; Dishwasher not provided in Unit 1
• Bedrooms: One 3-bedroom unit; One 2-bedroom unit
• Flooring: Hardwood; Vinyl; Carpet
• Bathrooms: Unit 1: 1 bathroom; Unit 2: 1 bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Wall furnace heating; Window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Basement; Storage; See remarks; Hardwood flooring; Vinyl flooring; Carpet flooring
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer in both units; Electric energy source

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 2-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $360k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $152 ($2k/yr) — positive. Per door: $76/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $296k (17.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $296k (17.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 2.1% in Castle Rock — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#209 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Castle Rock School District (town): math 36% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #174 of 291 in WA (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Castle Rock Elementary (702 students, 58% FRL); Castle Rock Middle School (348 students, 56% FRL); Castle Rock High School (449 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: 144 active listings in the ZIP; 348 units permitted in Cowlitz County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cowlitz County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $296,200 (17.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
2. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
3. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.81%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-48,795
• Equity at exit: $53,677

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-30,593
• Equity at exit: $31,126

Cash invested: $100,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98611

• Home prices YoY: -32.2%
• Active inventory: 144
• Price-to-rent: 20.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,962 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,888
• Tax from tax record: −$150 /mo · $1,801/yr
• Insurance: −$150
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$622
• Net cashflow: $152

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,770

Max offer price $360,000

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $356	-5% $254	+0% $152	+5% $50	+10% $-52
Rent	-10% $-82	-5% $35	+0% $152	+5% $269	+10% $386
Rate	-1.0pp $333	-0.5pp $244	base $152	+0.5pp $59	+1.0pp $-36

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	1	$2,962
Total (2 units)			$2,962

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $90,000
• Closing costs: $10,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-15
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-12
   listed $360,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,801 · $150/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,528 · $294/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,727/yr (+$144/mo · 95.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 27% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 8 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,544
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,166
• − Property taxes: −$1,801
• − Insurance: −$1,800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,844
• − Management: −$2,844
• − Depreciation: −$10,473
• Taxable loss: −$4,383
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,052
• After-tax cash flow: $2,876/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Castle Rock School District
• NCES district ID: 5300990
• Math proficiency: 36% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $51,823
• Composite: 41.78/100
• National rank: #7162
• State rank: #174 of 291 in WA

Livability — Castle Rock

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #209
• US rank: #5888

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Castle Rock, WA
• Population (ZIP): 9,367

Population outlook (Cowlitz County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 104,780 people
• By 2030: 103,980 · -0.8%
• By 2040: 100,769 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 96,685 · -7.7%
• By 2075: 86,454 · -17.5%
• By 2100: 74,052 · -29.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 3% Pacific Islander 2% Native American 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 5% Italian 3% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cowlitz

• 2024 margin: R (+19.9) · D 38.7% · R 58.6% · Other 2.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -31.1pp toward R · 2008: 11.2pp · 2024: -19.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.9 2020: R+17.4 2016: R+13.7 2012: D+4.4 2008: D+11.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -124.17%
• Current HPI: 261.3765
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-12 Listed $360,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,801 · +0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.