County Road 3038

Newton, TX 75966

$48,000B

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,376 sqft · Built 1998 · Manufactured · Pending · 154 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,337/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$252
• Tax + insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$281
• Net cashflow: $772/mo
• Annual: $9,263/yr
• Cap rate: 25.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 68.92%
• DSCR: 4.07
• 1% rule: 2.79%
• Cash to close: $13,440

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $48k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $772 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $48k).
• It's been on market 154 days — a 12% lower offer ($42k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $42k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($332 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (3.5% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#1,355 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Newton ISD (rural): math 23% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #661 of 826 in TX (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Newton El (math 17% / reading 37%, grade F, #2,791 of 4,322 statewide, top 68%, 380 students, 82% FRL); Newton Middle (math 30% / reading 33%, grade F, #997 of 1,662 statewide, top 61%, 333 students, 79% FRL); Newton H S (math 8% / reading 47%, grade F, #1,190 of 1,632 statewide, top 74%, 255 students, 69% FRL).
• Market conditions: 78 active listings in the ZIP.
• Newton County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 98% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 154 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.