County Road 3038 · Newton, TX 75966

$48,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,376 sqft · Manufactured public records · 154 Days on market

Built 1998 ↓ 19% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.7/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0

Listing remarks

Come take a look at this 3.75 acres, on a long winding county road in Newton County. This property has mature trees, and plenty of privacy. There is a mobile home on property, that the seller gives no value.

Key facts

• Listed 154 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $48k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $772 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $48k).
• Recommended offer: $42k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#1,355 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Newton ISD (rural): math 23% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #661 of 826 in TX (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Newton El (math 17% / reading 37%, grade F, #2,791 of 4,322 statewide, top 68%, 380 students, 82% FRL); Newton Middle (math 30% / reading 33%, grade F, #997 of 1,662 statewide, top 61%, 333 students, 79% FRL); Newton H S (math 8% / reading 47%, grade F, #1,190 of 1,632 statewide, top 74%, 255 students, 69% FRL).
• Market conditions: 79 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($332 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (3.5% local appreciation)).
• Newton County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 154 days — a 12% lower offer ($42k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 98% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $42,240 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 154 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.79% ✓
• Cap rate: 25.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 68.92%
• DSCR: 4.07
• GRM: 3.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.46% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 74.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.17×
• Total profit: $56,112
• Equity at exit: $22,834

10-year hold

• IRR: 73.1%
• Equity multiple: 10.63×
• Total profit: $129,419
• Equity at exit: $36,196

Cash invested: $13,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75966

• Home prices YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 79
• Price-to-rent: 3.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,337 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$252
• Tax from tax record: −$13 /mo · $151/yr
• Insurance: −$20
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$281
• Net cashflow: $772

Break-even live

Break-even rent $360

Max offer price $48,000

Occupancy floor 37%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $799	-5% $785	+0% $772	+5% $758	+10% $745
Rent	-10% $666	-5% $719	+0% $772	+5% $825	+10% $878
Rate	-1.0pp $796	-0.5pp $784	base $772	+0.5pp $759	+1.0pp $747

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,000
• Closing costs: $1,440
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-17
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-13
   price $48,000
3. 2025-11-14
   listed $59,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $151 · $13/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $878 · $73/mo
• Expected delta: +$728/yr (+$61/mo · 483.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 98% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,043
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,689
• − Property taxes: −$151
• − Insurance: −$240
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,283
• − Management: −$1,283
• − Depreciation: −$1,396
• Taxable income: $9,000
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,160
• After-tax cash flow: $7,103/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Newton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4832730
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $34,557
• Composite: 24.26/100
• National rank: #7719
• State rank: #661 of 826 in TX

Livability — Newton

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #1355
• US rank: #23337

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,773

Population outlook (Newton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 13,123 people
• By 2030: 12,567 · -4.2%
• By 2040: 11,431 · -12.9%
• By 2050: 10,393 · -20.8%
• By 2075: 8,230 · -37.3%
• By 2100: 6,038 · -54.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Black 20% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 5% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Newton

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.6) · D 16.6% · R 83.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -34.4pp toward R · 2008: -32.2pp · 2024: -66.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.6 2020: R+60.9 2016: R+49.5 2012: R+43.3 2008: R+32.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.46%
• Current HPI: 153.3331
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-18.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Pending — BBOR
• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $48,000 BBOR
• 2025-11-14 Listed $59,000 BBOR

Property tax history

-0.9%/yr

Latest (2023): $151 · -0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.