16 bd · 11.0 ba ·
6,344 sqft ·
Built 2009
· MultiFamily
· Active
· 602 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$13,475/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$8,391
Tax + insurance
−$2,600
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$2,830
Net cashflow
$-345/mo
Annual
$-4,142/yr
Cap rate
6.03%
Cash-on-cash
-0.92%
DSCR
0.96
1% rule
0.84%
Cash to close
$448,000
Investor read
This is a 4 × 3-bed/2.2-bath units multifamily listed at $1.60M.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-345 ($-4k/yr) — negative. Per door: $-86/mo.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $1.54M (3.8% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.35M (15.8% below list).
It's been on market 602 days — a 12% lower offer ($1.41M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $1.35M (15.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $11k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $48k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 71/100 on livability (#224 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: schools C-, crime F, cost of living F.
Oakland Unified (urban): math 27% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #1,007 of 1,400 in CA (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.5%/yr); 111 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 1,742 units permitted in Alameda County in 2024 (856 in 5+ unit buildings).
Alameda County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
7 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $150k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Current owner paid $1.30M; 23% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 2.4% in Oakland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $13,475/mo this rent would consume 132% of the median local household income ($122k/yr) (locally 1018% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 602 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
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· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29