3014 Jay Villa Rd

Castleberry, AL 36401

$124,900C-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,752 sqft · Built 1964 · SingleFamily · Active · 36 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,097/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$655
• Tax + insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$230
• Net cashflow: $132/mo
• Annual: $1,585/yr
• Cap rate: 7.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.53%
• DSCR: 1.20
• 1% rule: 0.88%
• Cash to close: $34,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $132 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $110k (12.2% below list).
• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($121k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $110k (12.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (1.9% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#379 in AL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Conecuh County (rural): math 7% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #111 of 129 in AL (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 40 active listings in the ZIP; 1 units permitted in Conecuh County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Conecuh County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $73k; list at $125k implies a 71% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (1.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.