3014 Jay Villa Rd · Castleberry, AL 36401

$124,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,752 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 36 Days on market

Built 1964 1.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• Appreciation +6.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0

Listing remarks

This home offers a great layout, solid space, and plenty of potential with a little TLC and cosmetic updating. Comfortable living areas and a functional floor plan, this property is a great opportunity for buyers looking to add their own style and value. Sitting on 1 acre, the property also includes storage buildings, offering plenty of extra space for tools, equipment, or hobbies.

Key facts

• Great layout
• Storage buildings
• Extra space

Tags

• GREAT LAYOUT
• FUNCTIONAL FLOOR PLAN
• STORAGE BUILDINGS
• EXTRA SPACE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story
• Construction: Wood siding construction
• Exterior features: Level lot; Storage structure on property

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Laminate counters; Seven total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $132 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $110k (12.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $110k (12.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#379 in AL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Conecuh County (rural): math 7% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #111 of 129 in AL (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 40 active listings in the ZIP; 1 units permitted in Conecuh County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (1.9% local appreciation)).
• Conecuh County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (1.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($121k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $73k; list at $125k implies a 71% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $109,672 (12.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.53%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.94% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.47×
• Total profit: $16,516
• Equity at exit: $48,843

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.60×
• Total profit: $55,882
• Equity at exit: $70,012

Cash invested: $34,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36401

• Home prices YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 40
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,097 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$655
• Tax from tax record: −$27 /mo · $328/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$230
• Net cashflow: $132

Break-even live

Break-even rent $930

Max offer price $124,900

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $203	-5% $167	+0% $132	+5% $97	+10% $61
Rent	-10% $45	-5% $89	+0% $132	+5% $175	+10% $219
Rate	-1.0pp $195	-0.5pp $164	base $132	+0.5pp $100	+1.0pp $67

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,225
• Closing costs: $3,747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $124,900 Active 36 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $124,900 Active 34 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $124,900 Active 33 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $124,900 Active 32 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $124,900 Active 31 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $124,900 Active 30 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $124,900 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $124,900 Active 27 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $124,900 Active 24 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $124,900 Active 23 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $124,900 Active 22 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $124,900 Active 20 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $124,900 Active 18 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $124,900 Active 17 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $124,900 Active 16 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $124,900 Active 15 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $124,900 Active 14 DOM
18. 2026-05-16
    listed $124,900 Active
19. 2021-10-08
    soldstatus $73,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $328 · $27/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $512 · $43/mo
• Expected delta: +$184/yr (+$15/mo · 56.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,161
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,996
• − Property taxes: −$328
• − Insurance: −$624
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,053
• − Management: −$1,053
• − Depreciation: −$3,633
• Taxable loss: −$527
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$127
• After-tax cash flow: $1,711/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conecuh County
• NCES district ID: 0100870
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $28,538
• Composite: 14.53/100
• National rank: #9419
• State rank: #111 of 129 in AL

Livability — Castleberry

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #379
• US rank: #21688

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,493

Population outlook (Conecuh County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 11,360 people
• By 2030: 10,646 · -6.3%
• By 2040: 9,363 · -17.6%
• By 2050: 8,241 · -27.5%
• By 2075: 6,261 · -44.9%
• By 2100: 5,035 · -55.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (55%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 55% White 39% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Conecuh

• 2024 margin: R (+13.9) · D 42.7% · R 56.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.4pp toward R · 2008: -0.6pp · 2024: -13.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.9 2020: R+7.4 2016: R+5.2 2012: D+1.7 2008: R+0.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.94%
• Current HPI: 122.7813
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+71.1% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Listed $124,900 CAOR
• 2021-10-08 Sold (Public Records) $73,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $328 · -7.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.