125 Arvin Dr

Lancaster, KY 40444

$169,000C+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,032 sqft · Built 1980 · Other · Active · 30 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,831/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$886
• Tax + insurance: −$193
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$385
• Net cashflow: $368/mo
• Annual: $4,416/yr
• Cap rate: 9.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.02%
• DSCR: 1.49
• 1% rule: 1.08%
• Cash to close: $47,320

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $169k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $368 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $169k).
• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($166k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $166k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#314 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: health & safety D+, schools D-, amenities F.
• Garrard County (rural): math 28% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #63 of 165 in KY (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: 168 active listings in the ZIP.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $21k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $105k; list at $169k implies a 61% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.