125 Arvin Dr · Lancaster, KY 40444

$169,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,032 sqft · Other · 30 Days on market

Built 1980 0.25 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.3/30.0
• DSCR +8.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +1.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Completely renovated 3-bedroom, 1 bath home offering 1,032 sq ft of updated living space. Features include all-new kitchen appliances, granite countertops, new LVP flooring throughout, and fresh paint in every room. The bathroom has been fully updated with a tiled shower and double vanity sink. Additional improvements include a brand-new HVAC system, providing comfort and efficiency. Move-in ready with modern finishes throughout. Inspections are welcome but property sold AS-IS.

Key facts

• Renovated home
• New lvp flooring
• Granite countertops

Tags

• RENOVATED HOME
• NEW KITCHEN APPLIANCES
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• NEW LVP FLOORING
• FULLY UPDATED BATHROOM
• TILED SHOWER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $169k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $368 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $169k).
• Recommended offer: $166k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#314 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: health & safety D+, schools D-, amenities F.
• Garrard County (rural): math 28% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #63 of 165 in KY (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 168 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($166k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $21k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $105k; list at $169k implies a 61% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $166,465 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.02%
• DSCR: 1.49
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.92×
• Total profit: $-3,976
• Equity at exit: $25,198

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.56×
• Total profit: $26,605
• Equity at exit: $14,612

Cash invested: $47,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40444

• Home prices YoY: -2.6%
• Active inventory: 168
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,831 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$886
• Tax from tax record: −$56 /mo · $669/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$385
• Net cashflow: $368

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,366

Max offer price $169,000

Occupancy floor 75%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,250
• Closing costs: $5,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $169,000 Active 30 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $169,000 Active 29 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $169,000 Active 28 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $169,000 Active 27 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $169,000 Active 26 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $169,000 Active 24 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   remarks 482-char remark
8. 2026-06-13
   pricestatusdays on market $169,000 Active 23 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $178,000 Contingent 21 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $178,000 Contingent 20 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $178,000 Contingent 19 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $178,000 Contingent 18 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $178,000 Contingent 15 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $178,000 Contingent 14 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $178,000 Contingent 13 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    statusdays on market $178,000 Contingent 12 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $178,000 Active 11 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $178,000 Active 10 DOM
19. 2026-05-01
    price $180,000
20. 2026-04-24
    status Active
21. 2026-04-18
    historical Contingent
22. 2026-04-18
    historical
23. 2026-02-24
    listed $190,000 Active
24. 2025-10-31
    soldstatus $105,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $669 · $56/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,453 · $121/mo
• Expected delta: +$784/yr (+$65/mo · 117.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,978
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,467
• − Property taxes: −$669
• − Insurance: −$1,642
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,758
• − Management: −$1,758
• − Depreciation: −$4,916
• Taxable income: $1,767
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$424
• After-tax cash flow: $3,992/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Garrard County
• NCES district ID: 2102160
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $43,411
• Composite: 29.67/100
• National rank: #6462
• State rank: #63 of 165 in KY

Livability — Lancaster

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #314
• US rank: #15040

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A- Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lancaster, KY
• Population (ZIP): 14,207

Population outlook (Garrard County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 17,852 people
• By 2030: 18,018 · +0.9%
• By 2040: 18,076 · +1.3%
• By 2050: 17,592 · -1.5%
• By 2075: 16,128 · -9.7%
• By 2100: 13,489 · -24.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Subsaharan African 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Garrard

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.2) · D 19.3% · R 79.5% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.1pp toward R · 2008: -43.1pp · 2024: -60.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.2 2020: R+56.6 2016: R+58.5 2012: R+51.6 2008: R+43.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -8.08%
• Current HPI: 297.6233
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+71.4% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $180,000 ImagineMLS
• 2026-04-24 Relisted — ImagineMLS
• 2026-04-18 Contingent — ImagineMLS
• 2026-04-18 Listing Removed — ImagineMLS
• 2026-02-24 Listed $190,000 ImagineMLS
• 2025-10-31 Sold (Public Records) $105,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $669 · -0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.