3001 Holiday Beach Dr

Avon Park, FL 33825

$175,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 924 sqft · Built 2024 · Manufactured · Active · 149 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,378/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax + insurance: −$164
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$289
• Net cashflow: $7/mo
• Annual: $88/yr
• Cap rate: 6.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.18%
• DSCR: 1.01
• 1% rule: 0.79%
• Cash to close: $49,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $175k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $7 ($88/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $138k (21.2% below list).
• It's been on market 149 days — a 12% lower offer ($154k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $138k (21.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#407 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Highlands (other): math 45% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #54 of 73 in FL (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Hill-Gustat Middle School (math 53% / reading 50%, grade C, #232 of 571 statewide, top 41%, 705 students, 63% FRL); Avon Park High School (math 35% / reading 39%, grade F, #340 of 667 statewide, top 52%, 928 students, 67% FRL) — zoned schools at 65% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 478 active listings in the ZIP; 980 units permitted in Highlands County in 2024 (80 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $90k (34%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $18k; list at $175k implies a 846% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.8% in Avon Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($47k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 149 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.