408 Chestnut St

Anaconda-Deer Lodge County, MT 59711

$199,000D-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,156 sqft · Built 1900 · SingleFamily · Active · 141 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,310/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax + insurance: −$189
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$275
• Net cashflow: $-198/mo
• Annual: $-2,373/yr
• Cap rate: 5.10%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.26%
• DSCR: 0.81
• 1% rule: 0.66%
• Cash to close: $55,720

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $199k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-198 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $164k (17.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $131k (34.1% below list).
• It's been on market 141 days — a 12% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $131k (34.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Anaconda H S (town): math 35% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #155 of 339 in MT (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Fred Moodry Intermediate (math 28% / reading 38%, grade F, #209 of 293 statewide, top 72%, 284 students, 0% FRL); Anaconda Jr High School (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #115 of 146 statewide, top 79%, 176 students, 0% FRL); Anaconda Sr High School (math 17% / reading 32%, grade F, #80 of 132 statewide, top 80%, 281 students, 0% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 123 active listings in the ZIP; 20 units permitted in Deer Lodge County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Deer Lodge County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $41k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 2.9% in Anaconda-Deer Lodge County — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 141 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.