408 Chestnut St · Anaconda-Deer Lodge County, MT 59711

$199,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,156 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 141 Days on market

Built 1900 3,485 sqft lot Est $338k · 41% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.1/30.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Attention Investors! This would make a great rental property-Remodel was started but not finished! Overall square ft up and down more than 2100! Detached 2-car garage and fenced back yard! Home being sold as is! Will not last long!

Key facts

• Fenced yard
• Firepit ring
• Deck off back

Tags

• TWO STORY FOURSQUARE HOUSE
• SPACIOUS OPEN LIVING AREA
• FENCED YARD
• FIREPIT RING
• BACK PATIO
• DECK OFF BACK

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage
• Utilities: Cable connected; Electricity connected
• Home design: Single family residence; Two levels
• Construction: Partial basement (concrete)
• Exterior features: Balcony; Fire pit; Covered, deck, enclosed porch; Back yard wood fencing; Metal roof; Level topography/lot; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 three-quarter bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Baseboard heating; Electric heating; Hot water heating; Wood stove
• Interior features: Open floor plan; Vaulted ceilings; Walk-in closets; High-speed internet
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Washer hookup; Partial concrete basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-198 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $164k (17.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $131k (34.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $131k (34.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 2.9% in Anaconda-Deer Lodge County — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Anaconda H S (town): math 35% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #155 of 339 in MT (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Fred Moodry Intermediate (math 28% / reading 38%, grade F, #209 of 293 statewide, top 72%, 284 students, 0% FRL); Anaconda Jr High School (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #115 of 146 statewide, top 79%, 176 students, 0% FRL); Anaconda Sr High School (math 17% / reading 32%, grade F, #80 of 132 statewide, top 80%, 281 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: 123 active listings in the ZIP; 20 units permitted in Deer Lodge County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Deer Lodge County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 141 days — a 12% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $41k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $131,050 (34.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 141 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.10%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.26%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 12.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $338,492
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
413 & 415 E 4th St	0.02mi	3/1.5 (+1)	2,046 (-5%)	9mo	$275,000	$134	76
505 Oak St	0.20mi	3/2.0 (+1)	2,025 (-6%)	8mo	$195,000	$96	69
523 Hickory St	0.34mi	3/3.0 (+1)	2,114 (-2%)	8mo	$349,000	$165	65
610 Hickory St	0.39mi	2/1.5	2,285 (+6%)	8mo	$320,000	$140	64
211 Elm St	0.56mi	2/1.0	2,232 (+4%)	7mo	$225,000	$101	58
612 E 3rd St	0.16mi	3/1.5 (+1)	2,417 (+12%)	11mo	$235,000	$97	56
44 Prosperity St	0.42mi	3/2.0 (+1)	2,285 (+6%)	13mo	$585,000	$256	54
504 Locust St	0.43mi	3/1.0 (+1)	2,335 (+8%)	12mo	$225,000	$96	47
303 Sharon Ct	0.63mi	3/2.0 (+1)	2,000 (-7%)	11mo	$359,000	$180	44
609 W 3rd St	0.66mi	3/1.0 (+1)	2,041 (-5%)	9mo	$329,000	$161	44
412 Maple St	0.50mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,940 (-10%)	12mo	$325,000	$168	41
1216 Elaine Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,900 (-12%)	8mo	$299,000	$157	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-44,907
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.00×
• Total profit: $-55,595
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Montana: 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; no rent control; preempted; rural-skewed market.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 59711

• Home prices YoY: -30.4%
• Active inventory: 123
• Price-to-rent: 12.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,310 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$107 /mo · $1,278/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$275
• Net cashflow: $-198

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,561

Max offer price $164,071

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-85	-5% $-141	+0% $-198	+5% $-254	+10% $-310
Rent	-10% $-301	-5% $-249	+0% $-198	+5% $-146	+10% $-94
Rate	-1.0pp $-98	-0.5pp $-147	base $-198	+0.5pp $-249	+1.0pp $-302

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $199,000 Active 141 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $199,000 Active 140 DOM
3. 2026-06-19
   days on market $199,000 Active 138 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,000 Active 137 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,000 Active 136 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,000 Active 135 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,000 Active 134 DOM
8. 2026-06-14
   days on market $199,000 Active 132 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $199,000 Active 131 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $199,000 Active 128 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $199,000 Active 127 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $199,000 Active 126 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $199,000 Active 123 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,000 Active 122 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,000 Active 121 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,000 Active 120 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,000 Active 119 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $199,000 Active 118 DOM
19. 2026-05-21
    price $199,000
20. 2026-05-03
    price $215,000
21. 2026-04-10
    status Active
22. 2026-03-22
    price $229,900
23. 2026-02-22
    price $234,900
24. 2026-01-22
    listed $239,900 Active
25. 2017-12-07
    soldstatus 231-char remark

    Show marketing remark (231 chars)

    Attention Investors! This would make a great rental property-Remodel was started but not finished! Overall square ft up and down more than 2100! Detached 2-car garage and fenced back yard! Home being sold as is! Will not last long!

26. 2017-12-07
    soldstatus

    Show marketing remark (231 chars)

    Attention Investors! This would make a great rental property-Remodel was started but not finished! Overall square ft up and down more than 2100! Detached 2-car garage and fenced back yard! Home being sold as is! Will not last long!

27. 2017-10-26
    listed $34,900 231-char remark

    Show marketing remark (231 chars)

    Attention Investors! This would make a great rental property-Remodel was started but not finished! Overall square ft up and down more than 2100! Detached 2-car garage and fenced back yard! Home being sold as is! Will not last long!

28. 2017-10-26
    listed $34,900

    Show marketing remark (231 chars)

    Attention Investors! This would make a great rental property-Remodel was started but not finished! Overall square ft up and down more than 2100! Detached 2-car garage and fenced back yard! Home being sold as is! Will not last long!

29. 2015-04-09
    soldstatus
30. 2009-03-31
    soldstatus
31. 2006-07-25
    soldstatus
32. 1995-12-22
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MT · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,278 · $107/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,672 · $139/mo
• Expected delta: +$393/yr (+$33/mo · 30.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥85°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 25 unhealthy d/yr today · 30 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,726
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$1,278
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,258
• − Management: −$1,258
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$6,000
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,440
• After-tax cash flow: $-933/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Anaconda H S
• NCES district ID: 3002030
• Math proficiency: 35% ▲ 10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▲ 15.00%
• Median HH income: $37,100
• Composite: 35.67/100
• National rank: #9685
• State rank: #155 of 339 in MT

Livability — Anaconda-Deer Lodge County

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Anaconda-Deer Lodge County, MT
• City population: 9,741
• Population (ZIP): 9,464

Population outlook (Deer Lodge County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 9,094 people
• By 2030: 8,931 · -1.8%
• By 2040: 8,471 · -6.9%
• By 2050: 7,986 · -12.2%
• By 2075: 6,950 · -23.6%
• By 2100: 6,142 · -32.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3% Native American 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 5% Lithuanian 5% Scottish 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Deer Lodge

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.8% · R 47.8% · Other 3.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -36.5pp toward R · 2008: 37.5pp · 2024: 1.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.0 2020: D+7.7 2016: D+6.9 2012: D+31.7 2008: D+37.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -139.41%
• Current HPI: 318.7076
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.41%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MT)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology / Analytics	1	$2B

Price history

+470.2% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Price Changed $199,000 MRMLS
• 2026-05-03 Price Changed $215,000 MRMLS
• 2026-04-10 Relisted — MRMLS
• 2026-03-22 Price Changed $229,900 MRMLS
• 2026-02-22 Price Changed $234,900 MRMLS
• 2026-01-22 Listed $239,900 MRMLS
• 2017-12-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2017-12-07 Sold (MLS) — BSCMLS
• 2017-10-26 Listed $34,900 MRMLS
• 2017-10-26 Listed $34,900 BSCMLS
• 2015-04-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2009-03-31 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2006-07-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1995-12-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,278 · -1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.