1406 Anchor Bend Way

Kissimmee, FL 34746

$190,990D

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,365 sqft · Built 2024 · Townhouse · Active · 178 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,264/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,002
• Tax + insurance: −$435
• HOA: −$618
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$475
• Net cashflow: $-266/mo
• Annual: $-3,188/yr
• Cap rate: 4.62%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.96%
• DSCR: 0.73
• 1% rule: 1.19%
• Cash to close: $53,477

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $191k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-266 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $144k (24.6% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $191k).
• It's been on market 178 days — a 12% lower offer ($168k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $144k (24.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#181 in FL, #2,841 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D-, employment D-.
• Osceola (suburban): math 39% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #60 of 73 in FL (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Bellalago Charter Academy (math 42% / reading 50%, grade D-, #1,234 of 2,144 statewide, top 58%, 1,162 students, 45% FRL, charter); Liberty High School (math 15% / reading 25%, grade F, #554 of 667 statewide, top 84%, 1,613 students, 52% FRL).
• Watch-outs: HOA is 27% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.2%/yr); 1713 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 83d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 59% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 8,813 units permitted in Osceola County in 2024 (3,072 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Osceola County population projected at +73% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $44k (19%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 3.6% in Kissimmee — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 178 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.