9902 S Thomas Dr #1138

Panama City Beach, FL 32408

$289,000D

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,483 sqft · Built 2008 · Condo · Active · 281 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,574/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,516
• Tax + insurance: −$550
• HOA: −$1,176
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$751
• Net cashflow: $-419/mo
• Annual: $-5,023/yr
• Cap rate: 4.83%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.22%
• DSCR: 0.77
• 1% rule: 1.24%
• Cash to close: $80,920

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath condo listed at $289k. Condition is rated poor.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-419 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $215k (25.6% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $289k).
• It's been on market 281 days — a 12% lower offer ($254k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $215k (25.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#172 in FL, #2,624 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D-, commute F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Breakfast Point Academy (math 62% / reading 57%, grade B-, #690 of 2,144 statewide, top 34%, 1,058 students, 47% FRL); J.R. Arnold High School (math 41% / reading 54%, grade D, #204 of 667 statewide, top 31%, 1,617 students, 36% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; HOA is 33% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 1176 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 63d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $126k (30%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 1.8% in Panama City Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $3,574/mo this rent would consume 53% of the median local household income ($81k/yr) (locally 16% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 281 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: kitchen cabinets — severely worn and outdated
• Major: kitchen countertops — worn and outdated
• Major: bathroom fixtures — basic and outdated
• Major: roof — visible wear on roof tiles
• Major: exterior landscaping — bare parking lot, no landscaping