9902 S Thomas Dr #1138 · Panama City Beach, FL 32408

$289,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,483 sqft · Condo public records · 281 Days on market

Built 2008 Poor condition $195/sqft · 45% below area Est $525k · 45% under · waterfront $1176/mo HOA · 33% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.6/30.0
• 1% rule +7.4/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This condo has 3 Bedrooms, 3 Baths, Bunk Room & Can Easily Accommodate 10 People. With newer Stainless appliances and sofa's this condo is ready to rent. Wrap around balcony for lots of views and separate entrance/exit to 3rd bedroom. Laketown Wharf Resort has a Dedicated/Gated Beach Access through a private boardwalk at Pineapple Willy's. Mini Golf area, Grilling area, All the Fun & Excitement in Panama City Beach! This Beachside Resort Offers Amenities with Convenient Beach Access, 5 Unique Pools, Splash Bar & Grill, Gulf View Fitness Center & Covered Garage Parking. LTW Offers a Variety of Views Including the Gulf of Mexico, Lake & Golf Course. Enjoy The Nightly Fountain & Light Show & Market Shops Along The Lakefront Boardwalk.

Key facts

• Private boardwalk
• Mini golf area
• Grilling area

Tags

• DEDICATED GATED BEACH ACCESS
• PRIVATE BOARDWALK
• MINI GOLF AREA
• GRILLING AREA
• 5 UNIQUE POOLS
• GULF VIEW FITNESS CENTER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath condo listed at $289k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-419 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $215k (25.6% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $289k).
• Recommended offer: $215k (25.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 1.8% in Panama City Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#172 in FL, #2,624 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D-, commute F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Breakfast Point Academy (math 62% / reading 57%, grade B-, #690 of 2,144 statewide, top 34%, 1,058 students, 47% FRL); J.R. Arnold High School (math 41% / reading 54%, grade D, #204 of 667 statewide, top 31%, 1,617 students, 36% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 1176 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 63d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,574/mo this rent would consume 53% of the median local household income ($81k/yr) (locally 16% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 281 days — a 12% lower offer ($254k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $126k (30%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; HOA is 33% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $215,049 (25.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 281 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
6. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
7. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
8. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
9. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
10. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
11. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
12. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
13. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
14. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
15. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.24% ✓
• Cap rate: 4.83%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.22%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $524,650
• List price: $289,000
• Delta: -44.92%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.55% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.08×
• Total profit: $-74,284
• Equity at exit: $43,091

10-year hold

• IRR: -27.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.26×
• Total profit: $-102,241
• Equity at exit: $24,987

Cash invested: $80,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 2 active · 6 under contract
• Median asking: $372,500 ($254/sqft)
• Median days on market: 320 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: +39.5% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 32408

• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 1176
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,574 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,516
• Tax from tax record: −$364 /mo · $4,363/yr
• Insurance: −$120
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$1,176
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$751
• Net cashflow: $-419

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,104

Max offer price $215,049

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-255	-5% $-337	+0% $-419	+5% $-500	+10% $-582
Rent	-10% $-701	-5% $-560	+0% $-419	+5% $-277	+10% $-136
Rate	-1.0pp $-273	-0.5pp $-345	base $-419	+0.5pp $-494	+1.0pp $-570

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,250
• Closing costs: $8,670
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9815 S Thomas Dr Unit 1523339P Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1259	$4,018	$3.19	70d	1	0.10mi
104 Gulfside Ct Unit 1523320P Panama City Beach, FL	3.0	3.0	1496	$5,020	$3.36	62d	1	0.15mi
204 Potters Bluff Dr Panama City Beach, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1035	$1,947	$1.88	62d	12	0.56mi
10811 Front Beach Rd Unit 1354928P Panama City Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1194	$3,463	$2.90	62d	1	0.64mi
135 Grande Island Blvd Unit 1355007P Panama City Beach, FL	3.0	3.5	1797	$2,759	$1.54	70d	1	0.67mi
2858 Joan Ave Unit 1523343P Panama City, FL	4.0	3.0	1754	$5,270	$3.00	62d	1	0.97mi
98 Paddock Club Dr Panama City Beach, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1093	$2,063	$1.89	62d	19	1.09mi
2917 Allison Ave Panama City Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1592	$1,700	$1.07	70d	1	1.10mi
104 White Cap Way Panama City Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1146	$2,700	$2.36	70d	1	1.30mi
10400 Panama City Beach Pkwy Panama City Beach, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1151	$2,372	$2.06	62d	20	1.33mi
175 White Cap Way Unit 1 Panama City Beach, FL	3.0	2.5	1432	$1,750	$1.22	62d	1	1.35mi
1609 Vecuna Cir Panama City Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1268	$2,100	$1.66	62d	1	1.38mi
8700 Front Beach Rd Panama City Beach, FL	2.0–3.0	2.5	1543	$2,400	$1.56	62d	2	1.41mi
8604 Whelch Dr Panama City, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1087	$2,950	$2.71	62d	18	1.42mi

HOA detail $1,176/mo · $14,112/yr condo

• Likely covers: poolgymsecurity
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $289,000 Active 281 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   days on market $289,000 Active 280 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $289,000 Active 279 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $289,000 Active 278 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $289,000 Active 277 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   days on market $289,000 Active 276 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $289,000 Active 273 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $289,000 Active 272 DOM
9. 2026-07-29
   days on market $289,000 Active 271 DOM
10. 2026-07-27
    days on market $289,000 Active 269 DOM
11. 2026-07-25
    pricedays on market $289,000 Active 267 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $299,000 Active 265 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $299,000 Active 264 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $299,000 Active 263 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $299,000 Active 260 DOM
16. 2026-07-16
    days on market $299,000 Active 258 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $299,000 Active 257 DOM
18. 2026-07-14
    days on market $299,000 Active 256 DOM
19. 2026-07-13
    days on market $299,000 Active 255 DOM
20. 2026-07-12
    days on market $299,000 Active 254 DOM
21. 2026-07-11
    pricedays on market $299,000 Active 253 DOM
22. 2026-07-10
    days on market $305,000 Active 252 DOM
23. 2026-07-09
    days on market $305,000 Active 251 DOM
24. 2026-07-08
    days on market $305,000 Active 250 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $305,000 Active 249 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $305,000 Active 248 DOM
27. 2026-07-05
    days on market $305,000 Active 247 DOM
28. 2026-07-04
    days on market $305,000 Active 246 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $305,000 Active 245 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $305,000 Active 244 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $305,000 Active 243 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $305,000 Active 242 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $305,000 Active 241 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $305,000 Active 240 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $305,000 Active 239 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $305,000 Active 238 DOM
37. 2026-06-25
    days on market $305,000 Active 236 DOM
38. 2026-06-23
    days on market $305,000 Active 234 DOM
39. 2026-06-21
    days on market $305,000 Active 233 DOM
40. 2026-06-19
    days on market $305,000 Active 231 DOM
41. 2026-06-18
    days on market $305,000 Active 230 DOM
42. 2026-06-17
    days on market $305,000 Active 229 DOM
43. 2026-06-16
    days on market $305,000 Active 228 DOM
44. 2026-06-15
    days on market $305,000 Active 227 DOM
45. 2026-06-14
    days on market $305,000 Active 225 DOM
46. 2026-06-13
    days on market $305,000 Active 224 DOM
47. 2026-06-10
    days on market $305,000 Active 222 DOM
48. 2026-06-09
    days on market $305,000 Active 221 DOM
49. 2026-06-08
    days on market $305,000 Active 220 DOM
50. 2026-06-07
    days on market $305,000 Active 219 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,363 · $364/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,363 · $364/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 77% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $42,887
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,188
• − Property taxes: −$4,363
• − Insurance: −$2,242
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,431
• − Management: −$3,431
• − HOA: −$14,112
• − Depreciation: −$8,407
• Taxable loss: −$9,288
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,229
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,794/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab Est. rehab $74,150–$133,470 screening

This property requires extensive renovations to improve its condition and increase its value. Immediate repairs and updates are needed in the kitchen, bathrooms, roof, and exterior to make it move-in ready.

Components & finishes AI

Flooring tile Counters granite Appliances stainless steel

Repairs flagged

• Major kitchen cabinets — severely worn and outdated
• Major kitchen countertops — worn and outdated
• Major bathroom fixtures — basic and outdated
• Major roof — visible wear on roof tiles
• Major exterior landscaping — bare parking lot, no landscaping

Value-add opportunities

• Both modern kitchen appliances — improves both resale and rental value ↑
• Both smart home features — increases both resale and rental appeal ↑
• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and rental value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Extensive scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

D Composite school gradezoned avg 54/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Breakfast Point Academy B- FL #690/2,144 Nat'l #7,252/41,679 High J.r. Arnold High School D FL #204/667 Nat'l #6,282/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay
• NCES district ID: 1200090
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,740
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3014
• State rank: #29 of 73 in FL

B Composite livability gradescore 78/100

Livability — Panama City Beach

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #172
• US rank: #2624

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Panama City Beach, FL
• County: Bay County · 206,264 people
• City population: 50,689
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 18,832
• Household income: $80,822
• Rent vs Own: 37.0% rent · 63.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 16% of renters

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Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 206,264 people
• By 2030: 217,740 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 238,738 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 255,545 · +23.9%
• By 2075: 288,295 · +39.8%
• By 2100: 288,638 · +39.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Black 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 4% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 4% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -202.52%
• Current HPI: 246.9126
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.55%
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-99.5% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $305,000 CPARMLS
• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $320,000 CPARMLS
• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $327,000 CPARMLS
• 2026-02-23 Price Changed $345,000 CPARMLS
• 2026-02-04 Price Changed $360,000 CPARMLS
• 2026-01-18 Price Changed $365,000 CPARMLS
• 2026-01-18 Price Changed $380,000 CPARMLS
• 2026-01-02 Price Changed $385,000 CPARMLS
• 2025-10-31 Listed $415,000 CPARMLS
• 2021-05-05 Sold (Public Records) $295,000 Public Records
• 2021-05-03 Sold (MLS) $295,000 CPARMLS
• 2021-05-03 Sold (MLS) $295,000 ECAR
• 2021-05-03 Sold (MLS) $295,000 NAMLS
• 2021-03-16 Listed $295,000 CPARMLS
• 2021-03-16 Listed $295,000 ECAR
• 2021-03-16 Listed $295,000 NAMLS
• 2015-02-06 Sold (Public Records) $57,690,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,363 · -14.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.